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| Summer 2008 CommentsFalling Upwards: Declinism, The Box SetIs America finished? Respected public intellectuals, think tank theorists, and members of the media elite seem to think so. The scare headline in a recent New York Times Magazine cover story by Parag Khanna titled “Waving Goodbye to Hegemony” asks, “Who Shrunk the Superpower?” Almost daily, learned authors proclaim The End of the American Era, as the title of a 2002 book by Charles Kupchan put it, and instruct us that the rise of China and India, the reawakening of Putin’s Russia, and the expansion of the European Union signal a profound shift in geopolitical power that will retire once and for all the burden of American Exceptionalism. America has become an “enfeebled” superpower, according to Fareed Zakaria in his book, The Post-American World, which concedes that, while the U.S. will not recede from the world stage anytime soon, “Just as the rest of the world is opening up, America is closing down.” Full text article"With barely contained satisfaction, a French foreign minister says of America’s standing, 'The magic is over . . . It will never be as it was before.'" You should have picked your friends with more care. George III might have been an irritant but to throw your lot in with the French? It was always going to be yours anyway, why the rush? Now you will just have to put up with it. Just learn to be as ungrateful to the French as they are to you. Britain has been in decline for – ever. Still here. You will get used to this "We are all doomed" talk. Usually comes round once a year. Posted by Barry Larking | July 17, 2008 7:57 AM EDT Although America may not be "declining," it is definitely experiencing an identity crisis. Our country and econonmy have been built on cheap energy and it seems the well is drying up. If we are to maintain our status as a world power, which I think we will, we need to address our energy needs with a responsible energy policy and review our intervention in other countries politics. The cost of waging war outside our geographic boundaries is significant. Posted by Michael Roberts | July 17, 2008 8:54 AM EDT Primus inter pares or primus by itself appears to be the way professor lieber regards the matter. he might be right, the colossus has a way to to go before its influence [s] wane, the colossus may not decline, it just might be left standing all by itself while much of the rest of the world does more interesting things than dominate and have 750 bases around the world. however, the u.s. might live of to being exceptional in bringing such a state of affairs about, i.e. creating an authentic united nations. Posted by Michael Roloff | July 17, 2008 9:41 AM EDT Declinist" is a pejorative? Talk about a thin skin! And I don't get the allusion to the Spanish American War at All. Posted by Daniel Tuck | July 17, 2008 12:22 PM EDT As an American who has lived most of his life overseas, I find myself explaining the USA to all kinds of people. Lieber's article presents a lucid argument for American optimism in the face of what might look like the end of our hegemony. Personally, I feel we've bitten off more than we want to chew militarily, and we've managed our finances atrociously. More Americans are hurting than a generation ago. But we'll figure something out; even my hometown of Detroit will eventually find its way back to the world of literate, civilized, and productive city life - even if the city has to shrink to 20% of its original size. Anti-americanism is a trend that comes and goes. Republican administrations always make things worse for those of us who live abroad - they lack understanding of diplomacy and go out of their way to emphasize this deficit. Stupid in an increasingly interrelated world, but thank goodness we're good at reinventing ourselves right quick. Posted by Brendan Brogan | July 17, 2008 12:49 PM EDT Arnold Toynbee in his "Study of History" argues that the breakdown of civilizations is caused from the deterioration of the "Creative Minority," which ceases to be creative and degenerates into merely a "Dominant Minority" which forces the majority to obey without meriting obedience. Powers are not murdered by competitors, but commit suicide because of self-worshipping, minority elites. Does this sound familiar with today's America?. Posted by Ian Clark | July 17, 2008 1:52 PM EDT Wonderful and thought provoking and for a change positive analysis. Will share this. Mr Lieber has done what emerson spoke of when he said not he is grear who can alter matter, but he who can alter my state of mind. The future appears more able to be "managed". Very depressing to listen to the doom and gloom people. Posted by Herb Jacobson | July 17, 2008 2:30 PM EDT This is a timely and well-argued response to what has become the current conventional wisdom in much of the world. Thank you. Posted by Patrick Watson | July 17, 2008 4:09 PM EDT The author has nothing to add to the debate. Robert Putnam's data on declining social and political participation, a phenomenon that can be found around the world, does seem to be at its worst in America. Assertions such as "The overall size and dynamism of the economy remains unmatched, and America continues to lead the rest of the world in measures of competitiveness, technology, and innovation." are gloriously untestable. Declinism is just another feeble neologism designed to avoid confronting the substance of any critique of US political culture. Anti-americanism is the gold standard for such facile and self-deceiving inventions, because despite a broadly similar history, mass and popular culture, there is no antiCanadianism. Canada has thus far avoided the extremes of unilateralism that generate the popular global distaste for America. The current wave of US graduate expatriates is a reasonable indicator of less than stellar socio-economic performance at home. Posted by Stuart Munro | July 17, 2008 7:37 PM EDT Robert Lieber has failed to make his argument, that America is on the decline while other nations are on the ascendency. What he really does is to say that it's not over, yet. The U.S. has not been relegated to the lower ranks, but it is, in fact, in decline, and much of the rest of the world is, in fact, ascending. Most of his facts support the notion that the status of the US, viz a viz the rest of the world, has changed. That's the point of the "declinists." Posted by Charles Cole | July 17, 2008 8:19 PM EDT One all too terribly common problem with predictions about the future is that most "experts" merely incrementlaly exptrapolate the current trend line and assume things that are getting better or worse will continue to do so respectively. As such, they tend to completely miss the abrupt discontinuities, such as the collapse of Communism. By analogy, I expect that contrary to expectations, before China and India reach the level of a dominant role in global economics, both countries are likely to experience inevitable and unavoidable centripetal forces taht will force eventual breakups, but not before lengthy and bloody civil disorder. In this regard, the US has benefitted from organizational principles (statee vs federal rights) that has insulated it from such distractions. The Soviet Union could not sustain itself ove rthe long term and there is no reason to believe that China or India wil be any different unles they adopt a more "US" view of federalism. Posted by Michael Kurilla | July 18, 2008 1:28 PM EDT Note that while the U.S. defense budget is only 625b, this figure may not include the Iraq War, interest from previous defense spending on loan, homeland security, vetran's affairs, etc... which would put 2008 spending over the 1 trillion mark Posted by Aaron Beach | July 18, 2008 1:52 PM EDT Lieber offers a straw man when he counters declinism with a reminder of America's great military strength. No one is arguing that our military is in decline; they are arguing that we are crumbling from within. Economically this is not in dispute. Our entire economy is based on an unsustainable combination of borrowed money, cheap energy, and, most recently, a revolution in transportation and communication. The technological aspects of our recent growth may or may not continue at the same pace, but it is abundantly clear that the debt and energy portions of our great ride are over. We are not dead yet, but anyone who believes we are not in serious peril of economic collapse is whistling past the graveyard. America is powerful because it is rich. We can survive wars and natural disasters, but we cannot survive as we are without our wealth. It is the underpinning for all that we hold dear, including our highest political ideals. Until and unless we find the wisdom to live within our means, the declinists will have a fair point. Posted by Don | July 19, 2008 11:40 AM EDT The same dismissal of declinism was also made about the USSR. The USSR was a global superpower. But it collapsed and disappeared. The USA is being buffeted by events, barely able to even respond. New Orleans is still half empty. Osama bin Laden is still alive. The World Trade Center is still an empty pit. The USA no longer has the political will nor vision to shape events and create the future. Posted by Andreas Ramos | July 19, 2008 5:04 PM EDT I found Mr. Lieber's article interesting. There is no doubt times are changing for the US, but so it is for the rest of the world. Yes, we have our problems in this country but there is a ground swell of change emerging. If we can get off our bickering and extreme partisian clashing, we will find there is a generation of American's that adapting to the U.S.'s emerging new role in the global community. Maybe we need to suffer a setback and clean up our collective act, seperate our needs from our wants and live within our means a while we will stabilize. I am amazed that as highly educated a bunch as we are in this country we really gloriously mis-manage things. We are ripe for a good overhaul, politically, financially and socially. Our polictics, Republican vs Democrat is worn out. It's like Coke and Pepsi arguing over the beverage industry every 4 years. In the end they collectivly own the industry and America stays the same. Things will change. Posted by Michael Gracey | July 19, 2008 6:42 PM EDT The most interesting part of the article, I find, is the link between narratives of decline and partisan politics. Leftwing critics will forever blame rightwing administrations for the country's decline and vice versa, with each group cherrypicking data to fit its worldview. The resulting public hysteria will supposedly trigger a change of government, but whereas governments come and go the levels of hysteria remain the same. I would call this pessimistic intellectual climate a sign of delcine. Posted by Jonathan | July 20, 2008 3:14 AM EDT 1. How many people today want to move to the USA 2. How many people for the rest of the planet that want to move to the "new" super powers? 3. We are still the only nation that proclaims "the pursuit of happiness" in our constitution. Defining it might take a while. 4. That simple Posted by Leo Stuyt | July 20, 2008 12:24 PM EDT IS AMERICA FINISHED? THIS IS A RATHER MOOT QUESTION. IF SO, THE WORLD ECONOMY IS FINISHED. ALL COUNTRIES SELL TO THE USA, THE ONLY MARKET THEY HAVE. WE BUY EVERY CAR MADE AND LET OUR CARS GO DOWN THE TUBE!! WE BUY EVERY CHEAP WHATEVER. IF WE GO DOWN THERE WILL BE NO MARKET AS THE OTHER COUNTRIES CANNOT DEAL WITH EACH OTHER. AND NEVER WILL!!! IT MAY WELL HAPPEN IF OUR 'LEADERS' DON'T WAKE UP SOON. THE TAX BASE IS ERODING RAPIDLY AND THEIR LIFT STYLE IS IN SEVERE DANGER. WILL THEY WAKE IN TIME??? Posted by Fred Thiemer | July 20, 2008 2:48 PM EDT Mr. Lieber's argument is that people have said the US was at its end before, and that did not happen, so anyone who says this now must be wrong. This argument is so lame, it is hard to believe it was published...oh, wait! It's Word Affairs...now I understand. Maybe someone should explain to him a bit about economics, as he brushed right past that topic. Posted by Doctor X | July 20, 2008 3:20 PM EDT The way Robert J. Lieber concludes his thought provoking article justifies me to add that his strategic defence to refute the forces of declinism,does indicate the fact that his nationalist thought could not accomodate the blunt and the veritable truth regarding the changing global geopolitical reality: the shift from the Atlantic power to the Pacific rim. Posted by Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi | July 22, 2008 2:31:58 AM EDT The question is not whether America is finished rather does America feel threatened by progress in the developing world. After the II world war it was USA that helped ignite the engine of productivity,commerce and the resultant prosperity in much of battered Europe and tha fallen Japan.The growth and later competition from these economies only helped fuel greater and better changes in the USA and not a decline.yes, indeed there is something well known the American way and of late it is getting tiresome and boring, Be it technology marketing or services the American way has been implanted elsewhere in the 70s and it has been perfected so well that no longer expertise rests in the USA in most viably commercial ideas. Lessons are USA has to do some reflecting with honesty and openness to come to grips and ordinary Americans should increase their knowledge about the rest of the world,I mean beyond their county,state,region and more across the continents. Posted by Subramaniam Shankar | July 26, 2008 10:11:39 AM EDT One of the recurring themes of those who deride declinism is that of Anti Americanism. There are however those who love the country and yet see signs of rot. Posted by Charles Frith | July 28, 2008 1:49:36 AM EDT America's not a country. It's a continent! It's not going to go any time soon! Posted by Sunniva | August 1, 2008 6:08:09 PM EDT Mr. Lieber engages in some of the same tactics that he accuses delinists. He over estimates his "facts" and underestimates his opponents. Truth, I suspect, lies somewhere in the middle. Posted by John Smith | August 3, 2008 3:04:05 PM EDT Travel the world and you note that people in very many countries may dislike that fenced military compound with a U.S. flag flying, just down the road, however they quietly feel more “secure” for it. American taxpayers pay dearly for the peace of mind they distribute. Those bases are also reminders of power. It also remains that whether you are a military dictator pillaging your own people, an oil rich monarch, a foreign fund or even Putin and one of his cronies, YOU PLACE YOUR CASH WHERE IT IS SAFE. There is only one country on Earth that really meets that criteria. It will continue to be up to Americans to make adjustments to maintain that perception. There is also no reason to listen to calls for panic. Posted by James Raider | September 22, 2008 11:12:43 PM EDT One of the most interesting articles I've read in a long time. Posted by Joseph Rizzuto | April 12, 2009 3:18:14 AM EDT Very interesting article. I agree that the USA will be a powerful country into the forseeable future, but what is the point of power? The USA will lose it's middle class and resemble it's developing competitors ever more over time as they will ever more resemble the USA. There is no more "American dream", the average Joe or Jane will be reduced to serfdom by the ever more voracious corporate profit motive. Who cares if America declines ? Large multi-national corporations run America, and care neither more nor less for it than any other country. To deny this is to deny reality. Well I mean, nothing is forever...I think china has "risen" and fallen a few times, and now may rise again. I mean Britain was a superpower of it's time, and is still a major world player. I think it's kinda, desperate to claw at something. This of course doesn't mean the states cannot rise again...but nothing...sorry...stays the same forever. Think of it this way, do you really think the world will be EXACTLY this way in 2000 years?Posted by Matthew | October 20, 2009 3:15:28 AM EDT Posted by Robert | November 7, 2009 10:26:11 PM EDT |  Submit Your Comment |
Posted by Steve Laudig | July 3, 2008 9:55:39 AM EDT