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| Spring 2009 CommentsDrunken Nation: Russia's Depopulation BombAspecter is haunting Russia today. It is not the specter of Communism—that ghost has been chained in the attic of the past—but rather of depopulation—a relentless, unremitting, and perhaps unstoppable depopulation. The mass deaths associated with the Communist era may be history, but another sort of mass death may have only just begun, as Russians practice what amounts to an ethnic self-cleansing... Full text articleIt would appear from your fine article that what has happened in Russia can be clearly defined to specific events: Culling through war and execution of those willing to increase the stock of social capital, out-migration of those who would have improved the demographic composition of the country (specifically the Jewish return to Israel), and maybe a sort of unmasking of the veneer that many on the Right always suspected existed--that Moscow and St. Petersburg were first world municipalities in what was in other respects a third world country. But Russia chose to relax its campaign against alcoholism. Russia chose to deny the extent of AIDS and drug abuse within its borders. As you note, Russia chose to become a natural resource dependent economy. I'm not trying to blame Russia or Russians for the fix they're in. Rather, I think it's important to note that all of these choices can be reversed. It may not happen under Putin or Medvedev, but with current unemployment and inflation both at 12%, someone will promise to remedy these ills, and sooner or later someone will be found who will. The Russian word for "catastrophe" is "katastrofa." "Katastroika" is not a word. If you were going for a play on words with "perestroika", it just sounds silly. Aside from that, a worthwhile article as a statistical summary of what is happening to Russia's health. More interesting would be an analysis of why Russians are behaving this way. Where is the nihilism (especially evident in the astounding consumption of alcohol) coming from? What are its cultural and, for lack of a better word, spiritual roots? It is interesting to note that Russia may be killing herself; it would be much more interesting to talk about why. The author declares that Russia's demographic decline "shows no signs of abating". That is completely wrong. In fact, since 2003 Russia has been experiencing a baby boom. While the birthrate is still below replacement level, it has increased dramatically, and the annual rate population decline has been cut in half. Once again, we have another natalist booster assuming that population decline is a catastrophic situation. When will you folks get it that population decline globally is the only thing which could save us from environmental disaster? For all the hand-wringing about "nevers" in this article, the fact is that "never" has development been driven by fossil fuels until recently - so the old shill of population growth = economic growth is about to come crashing down anyway. I kept hoping you would attempt to ask "why?" somewhere in your article. The staggering rate of alcoholism and binge drinking throughout Russia is a direct result of decades of vodka subsidies by the Soviet government. In hard times with very little hope, Soviet citizens were placated with copious amounts of poor quality, cheap, cheap vodka. They may not have been able to travel, speak their mind, or own property, but at the end of each day they knew they could count on a stiff, government supplied drink. The tragic result for the Russian people, who have so much to offer the world in terms of art, culture, science and mathematics, is exactly as you described. As a side note, I would be interested to know if your depopulation statistics took into account the breaking up the Soviet Union, the loss of the residents in the former Soviet Republics. My various friends in Moscow have always been stunned by the number of abortion stories they hear. They tell me four or five abortions for a woman in in her mid-20s is not uncommon. Could this also play a role in the population drop? How prevalent was abortion in Communist times? As an Iranian, just can't wait for the years 2025+, when Iran with a then population of 90+ million is rubbing shoulder with Russia's 110-120 million people. Iranian people are not forgetting all the back stabbing and territory stealing and other atrocities committed against it, by the Russo/Soviet and again Russo bulling bear of the north. The latest round of such grab-all-you-can policies are still fresh and alive on the scene, namely what and how it happened to Iran's that its 50% ownership and national interest in the Caspian Sea, is forcibly dwindled down to less than 11%. This historical national Iranian interest, theft is committed through direct application of bulling diplomacy. Need I remind that the then 90+ million population of Iran, armed with nuclear technology, ironically mostly bought from the Russians, is demographically much younger and naturally more aggressive, median age projected to be around 40 years, against the geriatric drunken people of Russia with ages approaching 60+. Millions of Iranian people just can't wait! I'm disappointed that the title has absolutely nothing to do with the text. Where is a good editor when you need one? The Chechens' revenge: while Russians drink their society to death, teetotal Muslims from the borders will flood into the vacuum. Escaping mention is a tragedy in the confluence of two factors emitted here: parental alcoholism and child abandonment. Many of the children in state care have learning, behavioral, and other serious disabilities due to prenatal exposure to alcohol. This blow to Russia's human capital would be difficult enough to cope with assuming a high degree of social support and services, but given the meager attention to the welfare of these children, especially as they grow, it is a matter of extreme concern. Russia didn't "master" nuclear fission half a century ago. They stole it from us. They had a real knack for espionage, but they weren't much for rocket science. The Depopulation Bomb is the fusion of 44% less females 0-9 years old today than 20-29, along with a Total fertiliy rate which has now 'improved' to about 1.3 births per woman, far below replacement rate. This hole in Russian population is not at all recoverable and must lead to population collapse. For all the reasons cited in the article , along with the end of free medical care and child care for working women , women have and continue to exercise one of their few rights in Russia: most refuse to birth and raise more than one child. The cause is men, all the way from V. Putin to their drunken irresponsible boyfriend. The alcohol problem is not just Vodka related. I spent some time in Russia in 2004 and the most visible alcohol consumption I saw was large groups of young people drinking champagne sized bottles of a sweet, fizzy, high alcohol drink. Most of them got legless in a very short time. A cultural response to disillusion with politicians, perhaps? Population growth is not necessarily hard to reverse. At home (Australia), low birth rates were changed to a baby boom almost overnight with a political decision to pay a "baby bonus" i.e. pay women to have babies. In a few years we have gone from below replacement levels to well above them. You say: "Only in a few Western European countries (Austria, Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom) did negative natural increase ever feature as a contributing factor in a year-on-year population decline. In all but Germany, such bouts of negative natural increase proved to be temporary and relatively muffled." That's strictly true but obscures an important point-in pretty much all of Europe the only population increase is coming from mass immigration and the increased fertility of those immigrants who have already arrived. Take a look at the ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures for the UK-more then half the babies born in London are born to foreign born mothers. But Spain is the greatest example-rising population despite a demographically catastrophic 1.3 fertility rate for Spanish-born women. Two other trends should also be noted: 1) the sex ratio in Russia is now highly abnormal, with about 24 million less men than women. Serious sex imbalances (in either direction) lead to social instability. Think of the effects on family formation of such an abnormal sex ratio. 2) Russia is not depopulating at the same rate in every locale. The Russian Far East, where Russia possesses its greatest natural resources, is depopulating much more rapidly than the West. This, too, has immense geostrategic implications. One word I didn't see mentioned in the article is abortion. Russia has the highest rate of abortion in Europe with the exception of Romania: 13 terminations per 10 births. Stalin outlawed abortion but the ban was lifted in 1955. Excellent article by the way. As with Ukraine and a strategy offered to assist. http://www.p-ced.com/projects/ukraine/national/ "We see a staggering array of social problems arising directly from poverty, including but not limited to tens of thousands of children in orphanages or other state care; crime; disrespect for civil government because government cannot be felt or seen as civil for anyone left to suffer in poverty; young people prostituting themselves on the street; drug abuse to alleviate the aches and pains of the suffering that arises from poverty and misery; HIV/AIDS spreading like a plague amidst prostitution, unprotected sex, and drug abuse; more children being born into this mix and ending up in state care at further cost to the state; criminals coming from poverty backgrounds, ending up as bandits, returning to communities after prison, with few options except further criminal activity. These are all part and parcel of the vicious negative cycle of poverty, and this threatens to destroy Ukraine, if Ukraine is defined in terms of people rather than mere geographic boundaries. Overall, population is steadily declining; families have not sufficient confidence in tomorrow to reproduce more than 1.2 children on average per couple." It began a decade earlier in Russia, until ousted: http://www.p-ced.com/projects/russia/. The text is generally correct, but Russia is not a single nation in depopulation. All other so called developed nations are depopulating, faster or slower. The real problem is adult male mortality. The nearest proxy seems alcohol consumption. But binge drinking itself reguires an explanation. Infant mortality steadily improves, as well as reproductive health, or to be more focused women's health. Abortions' indicators are abou a half of those of the Soviet era. Moreover 1 mln of HIV+ is a UNAIDS' fantasy. The situation is really bad, but the trend is not monotonically to worse. what is "katastroika"? the author would do better if he first learns what he's talking about before writing paper showing his knowledge of russian culture/language. Yes, this is a very good account of the situation in Russia today. But can you also publish the number of people living with HIV Aids in the US, the gun violence, the homeless, people on food stamps, etc. You never go so negative about a country in this way. Hope you are gonna write something positive about Russia next time. Thanks. Russia may be shrinking but the Muslims and Chinese are not going to take political control of the country. They have similar total fertility rates to Russians. The question is whether Russia's demographic policies can reverse the demographic problem (which is a truely severe problem). Population decline can be fine but it show occur at a very slow rate and it is risky to decline too much if one's neighbors are growing rapidly. The neighborhood Russia is located in is quite volatile. Most of Russia's neighbors are growing right now although in the long term they willl shrink too although maybe not at the current speed seen in Russia. I've read that at the onset of WWI, when the Tsar banned the sale of vodka in order to prepare his nation for combat, the internal revenue of the country fell by a third, from the lack of taxes on that vodka. While living in Guam in the late 90s I was surprised to hear the majority of the prostitutes in the out-islands (e.g. Saipan) were Russians. I knew then that something significant was afoot. IMO the Russian decline is due to several factors: -Declining standard of living. Captialism has not suceeded in creating a stable middle class or anything close to it. -Loss of moral vision. They really BELIEVED in communism at first; thought they were sacrificing to build a better world. Now they're utterly cynical...not just about communism, but capitalism too. -Spiritual emptiness. The lack of family stabililty (drunkeness, poverty), the abortion rate (indicative of women's lack of faith in the future), lack of religion, etc. Really, the only thing they still have is nationalism; you won't find a more jingoistic people. IMO that's what Putin is playing off...relying on age-old Russian xenophobia and paranoia to meld the nation together and get it moving in a better direction. In my opinion, the author only mentions the "surface" causes of the depopulation, like many of you have already mentioned, he fails to go deeper, ask "WHY?", address psychological reasons. For example, Chinese government had to impose a restriction on how many babies a family can have, surely their level of life is no better than that in Russia, but they are multiplying like crazy. The author keeps comparing Russia and Europe, but fails to compare it to Asia, which could show a clearer picture of "WHY". Overall the article is good but not thorough enough to see the complete picture. Therefore, Russia is turning into bigger Canada, maybe? So, is it clearer now why Russians do not think much of Yeltsin era? At least from population standpoint, his results were worse then Stalin's. In Soviet times young woman was able to have baby in middle of studying at University and with all government support, complete study. With all safety nets gone in 90s, abortion came as simplest solution. And in general, people are not interested in marriage and children during time of economic crisis which 90s in Russia clearly were. Of course, some things are hard to change and most of drunks in mid 40's cannot be easily saved. So it will take years to reverse trends. And as for higher education, by age 20 is clear who is at risk to end as alcoholic or drug user and who is not. Those lost souls cannot cut it at University in any case, sorry. But keep in mind, even mining industry needs fair share of educated people these days. I"ve heard about this article and decided to read it for myself - my fellow-Russians keep on saying that the West "humiliates us all the time and that this article is another proof of it" - but I am afraid that the aurhor is right- even in Moscow where there is a larger number of people who take better care of their health one can see all over the city young girls and boys drinking beer from early hours of the morning all though the day and a lot of drunken adults. As a Russian I am an oddity because I don't drink at all and people keep on asking me whether I am suffering from some illness! Amazing that I have to come up with explanations to justify the perfectly normal habit of NOT drinking! ha-ha-ha! This is masterpiece. "Russia's adult population-women as well as men-puts down the equivalent of a bottle of vodka per week.")))) Unconvincing! This has little force! You must write a bottle of vodka per day or even hour))) "Russians practice what amounts to an ethnic self-cleansing." ))) Someone fell into dreams. You will not wait till. This is a brilliant article!!! For me, it's not about disparaging Russia as much as it is a cautionary tale about what can happen in any nation that embraces a nihilistic outlook on life. It is a reminder that religion and morality matter. It provides evidence that a traditional family structure (where men and women value marriage and children are viewed as a blessing) is not something to be taken for granted. I´d be far more concerned about nations which have a far higher population growth than could be absorbed by the economy growth than the ones that are declining (if any of this is really true). Honestly, Russia does not even have drinkable water for most of its population, how could they want to increase their population? 33% of the American population is clinically obese. 75% is overweight. At the current rate of increase in obesity and the percentage of the population that is obese, by the year 2050 such a high proportion of Americans will be too fat to work that society and the economy will collapse. The author has picked and chosen statistics to prove the point he wants to make. Other statistics would prove a different point, but he has chosen not to include them. He has also made the mistake he attributes to Stalin of thinking human beings are statistics. Having lived and traveled widely in Russia I tend to think that in many parts of the country things are improving for many people. Sure Russia has big problems but so does America and the truth is that in this time of change no one can predict what the future holds for any country or what factors will affect development, mortality, fertility or anything else. Is this not the consequence of living for over 70 years under Bolshevism? Materialism as a state philosophy seems to have led to a society that is committing suicide. Amazing how the author holds on to hackneyed explanations and ignores others. Has it ever occurred to him that under communism Russians were a privileged nation? That their representatives enjoyed privileged life in their colonies from East Germany to Bulgaria, that Russian nationals skimmed the GDP of Czechoslovakia, Poland, and other East European colonies? That the pride of controlling and exploiting so many nations also counted in those days? Now the colonial structure is in ruins and exploitation takes place only in Chechnya, Bashkortostan, Yakutia, and some other territories of the "Russian" Federation. No wonder mood and fertility are down. At the rate of 13 abortions per 10 live births, Russians clearly have no interest in children and therefore no interest in the future. There is a cynical, selfishness to the ethos and that's why there's rampant crime, why women resort to prostitution in massive numbers, and why Russia essentially produces nothing for the world besides some vodka. Very interesting article and well written. My comment is, what about the huge population of Canadians who are recklessly following in consumption of alchohol and near majority of pot users as well as cocaine, crack, exstacy etc. It would be extremely interesting to a simular study for Canadians who want to use pot profits to end the recession. Thanks for an excellent article. Question: is this something new, or a reflection of callous Russian social policy that we've seen since Ivan the Terrible, to Stalingrad, through to the present day? Drinking to drunkenness is deeply embedded in Russian culture through the time of the Czars, communists and now the Putin kleptocracy. Perhaps it's a way for the common man to drown the sorrows of the uniformly dismal leadership his culture engenders. Russians have never had humane leadership and it shows in the slow degradation of their society. Pointing out fatties and other problems of the west is typical Russian misdirection. Continued denial of their own problems will kill them. Ironically, the West's biggest problem at the moment is infestation by the failed marxist ideas incubated in the Soviet Union that sent spores around the world via university campuses. Russia's "revenge" will be to take down the more successful nations with it through destructive leftist ideas such as cultural relativism, multiculturalism, political correctness. sexual libertinism etc. The new American President is history illiterate with very old clapped out marxist ideas and is using what would have been a temporary correction in the system that works - capitalism to substitute the system that fails everywhere, socialism. If Obama succeeds in switching control of American lives to always incompetent and corrupt big government, then we may be needing the vodka bottle ourselves to drown our future sorrows. This article would have been more helpful with actual statistics, rather than percentage comparisons only in several sections. So what exactly is the ave. life span of a Russian male today. Is it 57 years old, which is what I've read elsewhere. For anyone investing in in Russia this is important to know. Western journalists love to portray russia in this way and unfortunately this means uneducated readers like Edward Richardson (see comment above) get very much the wrong impression of the country. Nothing is mentioned of the warmth, hospitality and honesty of the Russian people once you see past the cold exterior. Edward Richardson's comment is one of the most uneducated I have ever read anywhere on the internet. The Putin dillema is that the former incumbent Russian president today has remained to be the most strong successful symbol of stability for many Russians: a national logotype that can ensure political longevity for any political program, even being the most helpless and unviable. The May celebrations in Russia indicated a revival of great consolidation and patriotism among common people over a victory in world war 2 who professed nostalgia for the former USSR and who think the Russia should be by any means a great powerful country again. Ruling over Russia as a Prime Minister the key element in Putin's increasing authoritarianism is his reliance upon the militia, military and, to an even greater extent, upon Russia's internal security affaires – FSB the analog of secret police of the Communist era. It might be said that today the activity of Russia's democratic institutions is dismissed as a farce, while the alleged course toward suppression of freedom and human rights is perceived as an official policy priority while power continues to concentrate in the hands of Mr Putin himself. The key sources of politics are in Russia's patriachial mentality, which unfortunately is inacceptable to understand the western system of values and ideas of freedom and democracy imperial thinking that put Russia in the centre of all Slavic world”, combining with corruption, violence, human rights violation, and disingenuous, sophisticated propaganda that were used by the party, the KGB, and the military. There certainly has been evidence of diminishing democracy since 1993 (including the use of tanks against parliament), however, it has only recently received such a critical attention among foreign and American observers. For the most part Russia follows the Universal Declaration of Human Rights to which this country is a signatory member. On paper, Russia's human rights law is actually quite good. There is inscribled in Russian Constitution law as an example that the Russian Federation – Russia is a democratic federal law-governed state with the republican form of a government and an article 2 of Constitution of Russia Federation sygnifies: “Man, his rights and liberties are the supreme value of the state. It shall be a duty of the state to recognize, respect and protect the rights and liberties of man and citizen”. Unfortunately, the lofty ideals embodied in many of the instruments to which Russia has acceded remain to have been on paper. Thus, Russia fell 20 places - from 88th to 108th - in the "protection of property rights" category, making it among the worst out of 117 countries in the survey. Russia also fell from 84th to 102th in "judicial independence" and from 85th to 106th in "favoritism in decisions of government officials." Although the Yukos takeover was the first positive step of the state towards renationalisation of energy resourses, to the big profit of certain closely connected Russian though to the detriment of foreign interests. Russia has remained to be among the oil reachest countries of the world. In his recent television address to Russian people, Putin said that even during world finabtial crisis the country has been growing at an average of 7 percent per year. This is a good indicator of stability for Russia oil-based economy. Experts believe, that due to the increasing world oil prices Russia's oil-driven economic growth further would be even higher with the proper institutional reforms, possibly reaching 7 or 8 percent annually even while being in the epoch of world financial crisis. The second point is that with Moscow leading the way, Russia is now dramatically reversing a decade-long drop in its national birthrate. Statistics shows that not only were 122.750 more birth registered in 2007 than in 2006, but the number of children boorn cast year 2008 was the highest since 1991. Officials attributed the turning birth tide due to new policies and increased economic stability in Russia. It probably has to do with improvements in living standards and economic growth. On the other positive side, the analysts praised the establishment of the Russian stabilization fund as a bulwark against a potential drop in the world price of oil. This important initiative of Russian government is arguably the most important example of economic legislation in Russia which surely would be approved in the following six presidential years. It seems incredibly naive of Western monitoring agencies to have expected the status of the health of Russians to improve after the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of its version of the welfare state. Two more factors that could have been mentioned in the article: 1. The Russian Government has shown zero leadership towards reducing the appalling high rates of smoking in Russia. Cigarette prices are laughably low and there has been little penetration of the idea that inflicting smoke on yourself and your neighbours in restaurants, hotel lobbies, internet cafes, you name it, is not just inconsiderate but LOSER behaviour. 2. Within the statistics of population decline, a glaring factor is the difference between reproductive success of European Russians and Muslims. The Muslim proportion of the total population is growing inexorably, as Muslims have large families and don't appear to resort as much to abortion. I was just in the Park Pobedi (park of victory) museum the other day. In the hall of tears, it said that 28 million people died during the war. What's the correct number? I think the declining birth rate in Russia is a sign of no hope no future in a country that forbids real freedom of speech, freedom of press, freedom of thought. No free political expression. A country governed by a KGB dictator allows no compitition who hand picked the Russia puppet president to control Russia and it's people sorry , i didn't tell any more on the child growths . but i demanded on one thing why the people are not interested on child care...our governments giveup many promises but it,s doesn't follow the any rules upto this time ...recently indian government annonce the child labour restrictions ....but for that project it did prepared any specializations proceduere ..without any preparation how can the government giveup promicess..if they realy want to restrict the child labours than recruite the some officers.. when we follow the restricted of child labour rules ...than we have to totaly change and save the child growing stages.than the child stage not have any problem on the growing up red.when we work sincearly as per the child labour rules , definatly we have break the growing up red .. remember one thing all: when childrens are happy than our country having with lot of peacefull . " CHIDRENS ARE BIRDS NOT A CARRAGERS ". |  Submit Your Comment |
Posted by Irving Green | April 2, 2009 10:49:03 AM EDT