The Cakewalk, Seven Years On

Remember Iraq? Most Americans are doing their darnedest to forget the invasion and occupation that began seven years ago this past week. Iraq has become our new “forgotten war.” It wrests that title from Afghanistan, which had languished for years as George W. Bush’s “forgotten war,” until rediscovered and revived by Barack Obama. Such are the ironies of history.

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In a recent interview with The New York Times, General Ray Odierno, latest in a long line of U.S. commanders in Baghdad, opined that “People have to get past why we came here.” From the general’s lips to God’s ears: Americans have already dumped from their memory bank the reasons offered up to justify the Iraq war in the first place.

A bristling arsenal of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction? Saddam Hussein’s ties to violent jihadists? The liberation of Iraq paving the way for a democratic transformation across the Greater Middle East? The road to peace in Jerusalem found in downtown Baghdad? A demonstration of American military might settling once and for all the question of who is the “stronger horse”? Fahgettaboudit.

So instead of talking about why we opted in invade Iraq, let’s talk about consequences. This, as it happens, is the subject of a just-published study completed for the Air Force by the RAND Corporation.

Here, according to RAND, is what we got for our trillion or so dollars. (And, yes, the meter is still running.)

1). The regional balance of power has tilted in favor of Iran, “creating the impression among Arab publics that Iran–and by extension Shi’ism–was now the ‘winning’ side.”

2). With a series of blunders having raised doubts about U.S. competence and capabilities, Arab nations are increasingly looking to Russia and China for patronage, protection, and support.

3). Rather than advancing the cause of democracy, “the war has stalled or reversed the momentum of Arab political reform”; in countries throughout the Middle East, counterterrorism has provided a pretext to suppress movements supporting liberalism and adherence to the rule of law.

4). The two million Iraqis who fled their country to escape war–according to RAND, “the largest refugee crisis in the Middle East since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War”–threaten to destabilize neighboring countries such as Jordan and Syria; Iraqi refugee camps serve as incubators for prostitution, female trafficking, and political radicalism.

5). Tactics and techniques developed to fight the Americans in Iraq have found their way to groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, so that the long conflict in Iraq has enhanced insurgent capabilities across the region.

Good news out of all this? The wonks at RAND couldn’t find any.

It’s no wonder that all the smart people in Washington, civilians and soldiers alike, are so keen to change the subject. Let’s talk about fixing Afghanistan or Pakistan. Let’s wring our hands about how to save the day in Yemen or Somalia. Let’s talk about anything except the mess made as a consequence of Washington’s own recklessness and folly.

The real disgrace is that we let them get away with it.