On Monday, soon after the announcement of the death of Kim Jong Il, China Central Television ran 13 seconds of images of protesters first burning a North Korean flag and then a portrait of Kim. The state broadcaster at the time said the footage came from Pyongyang’s official Korean Central Television, but that was obviously untrue. CCTV later took down the images from its website, but not before other media outlets circulated links to the transmission and many netizens began to comment about the matter.

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It is virtually inconceivable that such footage could have been inadvertently aired, as CCTV claimed. The incident, regardless of the truth of the matter, highlights the fact that many in the Chinese capital want their nation to ditch the notorious Kim family. In private, officials have been telling their overseas counterparts that they have been suffering from what is now known as “Pyongyang fatigue.” Nobody, it seems, gets along with the North Korean regime.

There is profound unease in China about Kim-family rule, even though the two nations have maintained ties for decades. In September, the oft-quoted Zhu Feng of Peking University even asserted that the 1961 mutual assistance treaty between China and North Korea had become irrelevant—a dead letter—with the end of the Cold War because China had already abandoned the North. Professor Zhu’s view buttresses the assessment of South Korea’s then vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, who is reported to have told then US Ambassador Kathleen Stephens in February 2010 that China “would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a ‘benign alliance.’”

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The alliance between Beijing and Pyongyang has always been dysfunctional, but increasing Chinese clout in North Korea clouds the prospect of successful change in this failed state.

Sentiments like these are what American officials want to hear, and China’s foreign policy establishment may in fact be embarking on an once-in-a-lifetime shift on Korea. Yet there is, at this moment, no consensus in Beijing to change its long-held positions. That is why the Foreign Ministry, in the wake of the announcement of Kim Jong Il’s death, issued its typical pro-Pyongyang statements —Kim was “a dear friend to the people of China”—and President Hu Jintao on Tuesday took the unusual step of visiting the North Korean Embassy in Beijing to express China’s condolences.

Hu has always been a supporter of Kim’s regime, as has China’s People’s Liberation Army, which has moved noticeably closer to the Korean People’s Army. The PLA has traditionally set the tone for China’s relations with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, as the North is formally known, and on balance Beijing and Pyongyang have strengthened their links in recent years as the two militaries have gained power in their respective capitals.

Beijing’s views on the Kim regime are important because Kim Jong Un, Kim Jong Il’s son and designated successor, will not be able to prevent factional infighting among the 300 or so flag officers and civilian officials who make up the regime. If events get out of control, China might send its forces south across the border to restore order. And if that happens, North Korea will essentially become China’s “fourth northeast province.” 

The annexation of North Korea, whether formally or informally, changes everything in North Asia—and it could also bring Chinese troops in close proximity to American ones along the Demilitarized Zone, which divides the two Koreas. China already ran the risk of entanglement by North Korea last year when Beijing stood behind Kim Jong Il during the sinking of a South Korean frigate in March and the shelling of the a South Korean island in November. The stakes would go up if Chinese soldiers were within yards of American ones in the DMZ when the next provocation occurs.

Unfortunately, producers at CCTV, who evidently don’t like North Korea, aren’t consulted about China’s troop movements.

Photo Credit: Farm