Muammar Qaddafi is willing to fight to the last Libyan to cling to power. The stakes in this mounting battle are bigger than Libya itself.

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One of the tragic realities of politics is that while dictators do get overthrown, it is usually only the more moderate ones. Outright tyrants are harder to topple.

Yes, Mubarak’s rule rested on force and intimidation (and corruption). But Mubarak had little Egyptian blood on his hands, and in the end he went peacefully (although not of his own free will). Tunisia’s Ben Ali was more repressive, and perhaps he would have shed blood. But the army switched sides at the get-go, so this was never tested. Sadly, however, those regimes that are insouciant about killing their own citizens often prevail. “A whiff of grapeshot,” as Carlyle characterized Napoleon’s actions against rebels in Paris, usually works.

The ouster of Ceaucescu was one of the glorious exceptions to this rule. But the outcomes of Iran in June 2009 and Tiananmen Square in 1989 are more typical. Fascist and Communist regimes have been brought down, but usually by outside force (e.g., Mussolini in Italy, Hitler in Germany) or by a change of heart from within (Gorbachev in the USSR), and very rarely by a revolt from below.

The Baathist regimes of Syria and Iraq did not cavil about mowing down tens of thousands to fend off challenges. Qaddafi is cut from similar cloth. Nonetheless, he totters, and his fall, if it happens, will be consequential out of all proportion to the importance of his small country.

The lesson will inevitably be factored into the thinking of other dictatorships and their populations. Such regimes always rest on a calculus of fear (even though some may be popular at the outset). People who are groaning under autocraticrule are nonetheless unlikely to risk death or harm in a hopeless cause. They are more likely to take risks if they believe that their side will triumph. While a victory by the Libyan people over Qaddafi would embolden the oppressed elsewhere, at the same time, it will make rulers think twice before resorting to extreme brutality, knowing it may fail and only fan the hatred for themselves.

For this reason, it would be best if Qaddafi ends as the “martyr” he claims he wishes to be — although he would be a martyr not to Allah but to his own megalomania — with his body dragged through the streets or hung by the ankles like Mussolini’s. Conversely, although it is easy to understand Egyptians’ desires for a settling of accounts with Mubarak, it will be best if he is allowed to live out his days unmolested in Sharm el Sheikh. Then, the message would go forth to dictators everywhere: step down without a fight and you will be allowed a gentle retirement; shed blood and you will die ignominiously.

The fall of Qaddafi, despite the terrible tactics he has used these last days, would mean that no dictator in the region, and perhaps beyond, is safe. In particular, it would bring new pressure on the Syrian regime. Nasser in Egypt, the Baathists of Syria and Iraq, and Qaddafi were the avatars of the pan-Arab, Arab socialist era in Middle East thinking. If Qaddafi falls, Bashar al-Assad will be the cheese that stands alone.

The Obama administration should do all in its power to make sure that happens. A simple measure would be to declare Libya a no-fly zone, as we did to in northern and southern Iraq in the 1990s to protect the Kurds and Shia. Qaddafi is using planes and helicopters against his own civilians. It would be an easy matter for the US to prevent this. He has other heavy weapons that he has thrown into the fray, but were the US to deny him the skies, this would likely prove to be the straw that breaks his back. It would not entail the placement of a single US soldier and would be widely applauded by Libyans and probably by public opinion throughout the region, albeit not by all governments.

The leading goal of Obama’s foreign policy has been to improve America’s image in the Muslim world. Here is something concrete he can do right now that would achieve that goal and do a lot of other good as well.