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As the Kremlin prepares for yet another round of stolen elections in December 2011 and March 2012, more and more prominent voices in Russian society—including those not usually known for involvement in politics—are beginning to sound the alarm bells. With growing public opposition to Vladimir Putin’s twelve-year regime (an April poll showed that 50 percent of Russians disapprove of his government), the continuing crackdowns on rallies and the barring of opposition parties from elections only increase the likelihood of less-than-peaceful change from below. Repression and fraud can only go so far, as was shown by Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, whose party “won” more than 80 percent of parliamentary seats just weeks before he was forced out of power.

“Changes are overdue, they cannot be delayed any longer. The attempt to conserve the current non-constitutional order can lead to serious socio-political upheavals in the nearest future. The responsibility for … catastrophic consequences will fully and squarely lie with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and the head of United Russia party Vladimir Putin.” This passage is not from an opposition manifesto, but from an open letter signed this week by fourteen of Russia’s renowned cultural figures, including film director Eldar Ryazanov, writer Vladimir Voinovich, actors Oleg Basilashvili, Lia Akhedzhakova, and Natalia Fateyeva, businessman Dmitri Zimin, academician Yuri Ryzhov, and others. The letter warns that “no financial handouts can overcome citizens’ estrangement from a government that has lost its bearing and is no longer capable of solving pressing problems that concern the active part of Russian society.” The upcoming elections, the letter continues, risk making the government illegitimate “from top to bottom”—unless the authorities agree to lift the “de facto … ban on the registration of new political parties” and “provide all political forces with access to elections.”

The letter was published one week after the cofounders of a new pro-democracy group, the Popular Freedom Party (among them Boris Nemtsov and Mikhail Kasyanov), applied for official registration with the Justice Ministry, in order to be able participate in December’s parliamentary elections. While strongly disagreeing with the repressive law on political parties, the opposition leaders have fully complied with its provisions: the Popular Freedom Party has 46,148 members and 53 regional branches (with the legal requirement set, respectively, at 45,000 and 42). No lawful reasons exist for a denial of registration, but, as Mr. Nemtsov noted, “everyone knows that the question of registration will not be decided at the Justice Ministry.” Since 2008, seven opposition parties have been denied registration—and thus access to the ballot—on various pretexts.

After submitting their application, the leaders of the Popular Freedom Party sent a letter to the government of Lithuania—the country that currently holds the rotating chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)—requesting a “thorough and principled monitoring” of Russia’s compliance with its international obligations. The OSCE Copenhagen Document commits member-states to “respect the right of individuals and groups to establish, in full freedom, their own political parties … and provide such political parties … with the necessary legal guarantees to enable them to compete with each other on a basis of equal treatment before the law and by the authorities.” Within days, Lithuanian officials responded: the vice-minister of foreign affairs, Egidijus Meilūnas, affirmed that his country will “hold to the rules” of the OSCE, while the chairman of the Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Emanuelis Zingeris, promised to convey to Moscow “our desire … to see the upcoming elections with a full spectrum” of political parties.

Meanwhile, the main addressee of the cultural figures’ letter, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, has replied—in a way—to their call for democratic elections. The Kremlin press secretary, Natalia Timakova, announced that the president “will not react” to the appeal because, in her words, he “has such a right.” He does indeed. But with each passing day, more and more Russians are remembering that they have rights, too.