One of the favorite pastimes of Russia’s political analysts is guessing what the results of a free and fair election in the country would look like—no easy task, since the last genuinely competitive vote was held in 1999. With most polling agencies taken over by the government, and online polls clearly unscientific, any prediction is as good as another. One way to gauge public opinion and measure the relative standing of political parties is a “mock election”—an exercise launched by the opposition Solidarity movement earlier this year. Every few weeks, Solidarity activists across Russia—from Archangelsk to Yaroslavl—print mock ballots, set up mock ballot boxes on the streets and squares, and ask passing citizens to register their votes by means of a secret ballot. The results from around the country are then tabulated and published.

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The latest “mock election,” conducted at the end of October, provided important insights into the mood of the Russian electorate. According to its results, 18 percent of voters would spoil their ballots—presumably, in protest at the disqualification of a string of opposition parties from the December parliamentary election (this course of action is urged by several civil society figures and opposition politicians). Another 18 percent would support Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party; 14 percent would back the Communists; 11 percent, the ultranationalist LDPR; 7 percent, the Kremlin-created center-left Just Russia party. Yabloko, the only liberal party allowed on the ballot in December, would get 6 percent of the vote. Twelve percent want to boycott the election. The rest are either undecided, planning to take their ballots home, or backing smaller puppet parties.

Solidarity’s “mock vote” does not show what the outcome of a fair election would be—only what the outcome of a fair vote countwould be under the present system. The mock ballots only include parties that have been registered for the December election, and thus take no account of the support for disqualified opposition groups. There is also little doubt that the lifting of censorship and the appearance of opposition leaders on national television would significantly alter public perceptions. But even with these caveats, the “mock vote” gives a sense of Russians’ true attitudes toward the Putin regime.

The regime, it appears, is fully aware of its growing unpopularity. United Russia officials are openly buying votes. Yabloko is being prevented from campaigning in St. Petersburg, a city known for its pro-democracy sentiment. Yabloko’s list in Khimki—a hotbed of civic and environmental activism—was taken off the ballot after 100 percent of its nominating signatures were declared “void.” On Monday, police in Yekaterinburg raided the local headquarters of the Popular Freedom Party (which was barred from the December election), seizing thousands of anti-Putin campaign stickers, computers, and copies of party leader Boris Nemtsov’s white paper on Putin’s ten years in power. Local party leader Leonid Volkov was disqualified from the upcoming regional poll. Yabloko’s Yekaterinburg leader and parliamentary candidate, Maxim Petlin, has been in police custody since August. Monday’s traditional opposition rallies held across the country on the last day of each month that has 31 days ended—also traditionally—in arrests and beatings, including of registered election candidates.

What Russia’s next free elections will bring is anyone’s guess. But it is a safe bet that they will not be won by Vladimir Putin.

Photo Attribution: FOTOBANK.ER