The Petraeus Model Won’t Work for Israel

Andrew Exum, founder of the fine counterinsurgency blog “Abu Muqawama,”:http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/ wrote “a short piece for the New York Times”:http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/civilians-caught-in-urban-combat/ in which he suggested Israelis could learn something from Americans in Iraq and make a greater effort to reduce civilian casualties during future conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

“[I]t may be in the best interests of the dominant military actor to adhere to rules of engagement that go beyond the laws of land warfare and international conventions,” he wrote. “The time may arrive when Israel decides that highly kinetic, enemy-centric military operations do not necessarily serve Israel’s longer-term strategic aims. Instead, Israel may want to adopt lessons learned from the United States experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and place a higher emphasis on the prevention of civilian casualties at the expense of lethality and force protection.”

Israelis already go far out of their way to reduce civilian casualties, even when doing so puts the lives of their own soldiers at risk. Nevertheless, as Exum says, the Unites States goes even further. When General David Petraeus took over as commander in Iraq, protecting civilians from insurgent and terrorist violence was made top priority. The most effective way to protect the lives of American soldiers, it was decided, was by first protecting the lives of Iraqi civilians. This, I believe, is what Exum is getting at. He’s a former U.S. Army captain in Iraq, and he knows what he’s talking about.

The Army’s new counterinsurgency manual explains why this works. “Ultimate success in COIN [counterinsurgency] is gained by protecting the populace, not the COIN force. If military forces remain in their compounds, they lose touch with the people, appear to be running scared, and cede the initiative to the insurgents. Aggressive saturation patrolling, ambushes, and listening post operations must be conducted, risk shared with the populace, and contact maintained…These practices ensure access to the intelligence needed to drive operations. Following them reinforces the connections with the populace that help establish real legitimacy.”

David Kilcullen, an Australian counterinsurgency expert and advisor to General Petraeus, said something similar in “an interview published in yesterday’s Washington Post”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/19/AR2009031903038_pf.html when asked which lessons learned in Iraq can be applied in Afghanistan. “I would say there are three,” he said. “The first one is you’ve got to protect the population. Unless you make people feel safe, they won’t be willing to engage in unarmed politics. The second lesson is, once you’ve made people safe, you’ve got to focus on getting the population on your side and making them self-defending. And then a third lesson is, you’ve got to make a long-term commitment.”

Unfortunately, this won’t work in Gaza and Lebanon. At least it won’t work right now. Lebanese and Palestinian civilians don’t need nearly as much protection from Hezbollah and Hamas as Iraqis needed from Al Qaeda and sectarian death squads.

“Read the rest in Commentary Magazine”:http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/totten/59592.

Did North Korea Just Kidnap Two American Journalists?

“The Associated Press reports”:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hM96sRn69bkN1XDLqb2_pkmFxqdgD971FLMO0 that North Korea “detained” two American journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee from Al Gore’s “Current TV”:http://current.com/, for filming the border region.

It looks, however, like the reporters were “detained” for shooting film of North Korea from the Chinese side of the border. They were in China interviewing refugees who fled North Korea. North Korean military and police officers don’t have jurisdiction in China. If they crossed the border and grabbed two American journalists, those journalists weren’t “detained.” They were kidnapped.

Little Nazis

Fascism is always descending on the United States, but somehow it keeps landing in Europe.” — Tom Wolfe

I can’t imagine that Nazism could ever become mainstream in Germany again, or anywhere else in Europe for that matter, but “this”:http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3688161,00.html isn’t encouraging.

Roughly one in 20 15-year-old German males is a member of a neo-Nazi group, a higher proportion than are involved in mainstream politics, according to a study released on Tuesday.

Many politicians fear a resurgence of right-wing extremism as unemployment creeps higher in Germany, which is facing its deepest recession since World War II. Government figures have shown anti-Semitic crimes rose at the end of last year.

“It is shocking that right-wing groups have more success recruiting male youths than the established political parties,” said Christian Pfeiffer, author of the report issued by Lower Saxony’s criminal research institute.

Pfeiffer said fewer than 2% of young men were active in mainstream politics, compared to the 5% involved in far-right groups.

The study, conducted in 2007 and 2008, also revealed that neo Nazi-symbols — in either rock music, stickers or special clothing – were used by one in 10 of the youths surveyed. The swastika and other Nazi symbols are banned in Germany.

The highest proportion of neo-Nazis was in former communist eastern Germany, where almost one in eight youths were in such groups. More than 14% of those questioned were described as racist, and anti-Semitism was rife.

What would our European friends think if something like this were happening in America? What would Americans think?

Stories from Baghdad

I spent the last week transcribing my notes and recorded interviews from Baghdad — which came to seventy single-spaced pages in Microsoft Word — and I’ve finally organized this mass of material in a way that makes some kind of narrative sense. I would have finished this long ago had I not been invited to Israel and Lebanon, but I don’t get offers for free trips very often, and I would have been a fool to turn those opportunities down. So stay tuned for a series of long dispatches from Iraq at the end of the surge. Thanks for being patient.

The U.S. Needs a Reset Button for Britain

While President Barack Obama tries to improve U.S. relations with rogue states like Syria and Iran, he might want to ensure ties with our closest ally aren’t strained in the meantime. Damascus and Tehran will remain hostile as long as they’re ruled by Bashar Assad and Ayatollah Khamenei, but Britain has long been a reliable friend no matter who is in charge. President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair forged a strong personal friendship despite their ideological differences, yet President Obama is off to an embarrassing start with his Downing Street counterpart.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown felt half snubbed on his visit to the U.S. a few days ago when he didn’t receive the customary press conference and dinner. “According to London’s Daily Telegraph”:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/4953523/Barack-Obama-too-tired-to-give-proper-welcome-to-Gordon-Brown.html, the Obama administration says the president was too tired.

Presidents and prime ministers from all countries are exhausted most of the time. An excuse like that wouldn’t wash if President Manny Mori of Micronesia were blown off. I doubt very much that Prime Minister Brown was slighted on purpose, but an unnamed State Department official quoted in the Telegraph wants the British to believe the cool welcome is all they should have expected.

“There’s nothing special about Britain,” he reportedly said. “You’re just the same as the other 190 countries in the world. You shouldn’t expect special treatment.”

The same as Somalia, Turkmenistan, and North Korea? Good grief. Great Britain is the mother country of the United States of America. School children know it. At least they knew it when I was a child. The “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U.K. is so well-established it shouldn’t even have to be mentioned. It’s not a Bush administration policy that’s up for review. It has existed longer than Barack Obama has been alive.

Rudeness, unfortunately, isn’t the end of it.

Mr Brown handed over carefully selected gifts, including a pen holder made from the wood of a warship that helped stamp out the slave trade – a sister ship of the vessel from which timbers were taken to build Mr Obama’s Oval Office desk. Mr Obama’s gift in return, a collection of Hollywood film DVDs that could have been bought from any high street store, looked like the kind of thing the White House might hand out to the visiting head of a minor African state.

Somebody needs to be fired. Even the head of Burundi deserves something nicer than what he could get for a dollar at a bootleg store in the market. It hasn’t been that long since Democratic Party support staff assisted the White House when foreign heads of state came to visit. Plenty of people in Washington know how this works. Surely Secretary of State Hillary Clinton knows a few of her husband’s former staffers who can find a replacement.

“Read the rest in Commentary Magazine”:http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/totten/57792.

The Personal and the Political in the Middle East

Roger Cohen is taking heavy criticism for a piece he recently wrote in the New York Times in which he said the “annihilationist” anti-Semitic rhetoric of the Iranian regime tells us less about Iran than the fact that he, an American Jew, was treated with “consistent warmth” on his trip to Tehran and Isfahan. I can’t say I agree, but I sympathize to an extent with what he’s saying because I’ve had similar surprises in the Middle East, happening upon hospitality instead of expected hostility.

Arabs, Persians, and Kurds are so well-known for their considerate treatment of guests it has become a guidebook cliché. No one expects rudeness in, say, Tunisia or Morocco, but I can see why a Jewish visitor might be startled by a warm welcome in a country whose government threatens to incinerate the Jewish State. I imagine he felt a bit like I did when I first visited Baghdad in the scorching summer of 2007 when violent insurgents still waged pitched battles with American soldiers.

I had already visited the friendly Kurdish region in Northern Iraq before I dared venture south into the Red Zone. Western civilians were hunted there by militias and death squads, and it wasn’t the sort of journey one embarked on lightly. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous or that I expected to feel welcome. My nervousness ebbed slightly, though, because I did receive a warm welcome from every single Iraqi I met in the capital. Baghdad’s Arabs weren’t an iota less friendly or hospitable than even the Kurds who hoped their autonomous region could be made into the 51st American state.

Of course I was embedded with the United States military and had soldiers from the 82nd Airborne as my own personal bodyguards. Kidnapping me wasn’t an option for the Iraqis I met on the street. Their politeness, however, was optional and given freely. Don’t assume they smiled and said “welcome” just because the Americans carried weapons. Several soldiers I met had been inside Sadr City, and they told me even children there threw rocks and gave them the finger. (I have since been to Sadr City myself, and can report that the mood is calmer these days.)

It would have been a serious mistake, though, had I assumed too much about Iraq and its politics from the friendliness of its people. A significant number of Iraqis at that time still supported the very insurgents who would have covered my head with a hood and dragged me into an alley if they had the chance. Somebody in Iraq was setting off car bombs and laying IEDs and cutting off heads, and I’ve spent enough time there now that there’s little chance I haven’t come into contact with some of those people. Roger Cohen himself might have scoffed if I had written a column where I dismissed the Iraqi insurgency as irrelevant because the Iraqis I met were nice to me personally.

Arabs, Persians, and Kurds are among the easiest people in the world to get along with in person, including many Arabs, Persians, and Kurds who belong to terrorist organizations. I have met perfectly pleasant individuals who support and are members of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

I’ve spent twice as much time in Lebanon as I have in Iraq, and only on the rarest occasions have I encountered any hostility. Two men I met in Beirut who staunchly support both Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Damascus treated me to a Cuban cigar, a half dozen cups of strong Turkish coffee, and two fascinating hours arguing about Middle East politics. One told me he was a lawyer and handed over his business card. “If you need any help while you’re here,” he said, “call me right away.” His party’s slogan is “Death to America,” but I have no doubt his offer to help me was sincere.

Most Westerners who spend time in Muslim countries have similar stories to tell. Jeffery Goldberg related some of his own on his Atlantic blog recently. “I was once with a mullah in Pakistan,” he wrote last week, “who told me that Allah would soon fulfill his promise and destroy the Jews, but who invited me to stay in his guest room rather than make a dangerous night drive back to my hotel. I took him up on his offer, and slept soundly. It wouldn’t be fair of me to call this sort of hospitality superficial, because it grows from a real spirit of personal generosity, but I’ve learned the hard way that the personal isn’t always the political.”

It’s likely that many Iranians Roger Cohen met really don’t feel hostility toward Jews or even toward Israel. Just about everyone I know who has been to Iran has told me the regime’s face to the world is unrepresentative of what a huge number of Iranians think. But even if Cohen met Iranians whose beliefs are in lockstep with those of the regime — which also is likely — I wouldn’t expect anything less from them than what he reported. Every Middle Eastern person has been raised in a culture where hospitality even toward people from enemy countries is mandated. Not every person lives up to the standard, of course, but most of them do. We’d be wrong to think this reflects much on their politics.

Hezbollah Scouts Out The Hague

A United Nations tribunal to investigate and put on trial the assassins of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri “opened this week in The Hague”:http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/lebanon_tribunal_begins.html, and Hezbollah “has been caught running reconnaissance missions outside the grounds”:http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=82099.

According to French newspaper Le Monde, Dutch police have caught individuals affiliated with Hezbollah taking photographs of the tribunal headquarters on three separate occasions. A Hezbollah spokesman denies the accusation, of course, and I might even believe him if the police didn’t insist it already happened three times. If one person were caught taking photographs, we might write this off as a fluke or a misunderstanding. Two separate incidents are harder to dismiss. Three make a pattern.

If anyone would have asked me a week ago if I thought Hezbollah might use or even threaten to use force against the tribunal I would have said no, and I would have said no with confidence. Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah desperately wants to be thought of as the leader of a “resistance” movement instead of a terrorist army. He spattered his own brand with blood when his fighters, along with armed men from Amal and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, seized West Beirut with automatic weapons last year. But still, in recent years, he has only pointed and fired his weapons at Lebanese and Israelis. Westerners, even Jewish Westerners, have been strictly off limits.

Never forget, though, that Hezbollah has, in the past, used violence against people who are not Lebanese and who are not Israeli.

Until September 11, 2001, Hezbollah was responsible for killing more Americans than any other terrorist organization in the world. “A Hezbollah suicide truck bomber killed 241 Marines”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Beirut_barracks_bombing when he rammed his payload through the gate at the barracks near the airport in the suburbs south of Beirut. Fifty eight French soldiers were killed by another Hezbollah suicide truck bomber in West Beirut two minutes later.

In 1994 “another Hezbollah suicide bomber exploded himself and his vehicle outside a Jewish community”:http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/185135.php center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and killed 85 people two years after the same group ignited a car bomb in front of the Israeli embassy there and killed 29.

Hezbollah men armed with pistols and hand grenades hijacked TWA Flight 847 from Athens to Rome in 1985, and cells led by Hezbollah commander Imad Mugniyeh kidnapped 96 foreign civilians — mostly Westerners — between 1982 and 1992. After they kidnapped Beirut’s CIA station chief William Buckley, “they tortured him to death”:http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/thomas102506.htm, and they did it on video.

“Read the rest in Commentary Magazine”:http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/totten/57142.

Interviewed at NOW Lebanon

Hanin Ghaddar “interviewed me at NOW Lebanon”:http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=82362 over coffee as I was wrapping up my recent trip to Beirut. The transcript is a bit rough and ungrammatical, but it’s perfectly readable.

The comments there are rude and obnoxious because the deranged “Angry Arab” blog linked to the interview and sent his troll squad over. It might be nice if a few friendly voices posted a comment or two for some balance.

Back from Beirut

Sometimes I’m a bit cagey about my travel plans, not because I’m paranoid but because I think it’s a good habit to cultivate even when I don’t think it’s necessary. Even so, it seems like half the known universe found out I was in Beirut, Lebanon, last week when my colleague Christopher Hitchens was roughed up on Hamra Street after defacing a commemorative sign guarded by the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. I was with him when it happened, as was Jonathan Foreman from Standpoint Magazine. I must have received fifty emails from concerned friends and readers asking if I was okay when the rumor spread from the blogosphere to the media.

Yes, I am fine. I got one scratch and one bruise when I tried to extract Christopher from the mob. I wouldn’t have even been scratched had I simply stepped aside and let the angry young men go to work on him without interference.

Almost every narrative yet published of this minor battle in Beirut is wrong in at least one detail. Now that I’m home and have time to write, I’ll knock out the real story and publish it here. Stay tuned. This won’t take long.

In the meantime, “here is an excellent interview with Christopher”:http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=80981 in NOW Lebanon that was conducted over dinner in Saad Hariri’s house a few nights ago. Read it all.

A Third Lebanon War?

The Lebanese-Israeli border has been calmer during the last two and a half years than it has been in decades. Hezbollah replenished its arsenal of rockets after the 2006 war, but has chosen to lay low in the meantime. Not one Israeli soldier has been kidnapped since the war’s end, and not a single Hezbollah rocket has landed in Israel. Nothing stays the same in the Middle East for long, though, and Israel and Lebanon may be headed for confrontation again.

One year to the day after Hezbollah military commander Imad Mugniyeh was assassinated by a car bomb in downtown Damascus, Alice Fordham “published a piece at NOW Lebanon”:http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=79564 that makes for sobering reading. She quotes a number of analysts in both Lebanon and Israel who fear another round of violence is coming. Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah blames Israel for killing Mugniyeh, and he vows vengeance. His threat appears to be credible. Terrorist attacks against Israeli interests by Hezbollah cells have been foiled on three continents — in Europe, Egypt, and Azerbaijan.

“I wrote recently”:http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/totten/52642 that Nasrallah appears to have been deterred by Israel’s devastating air and ground assault in July and August of 2006. “We did not believe,” he said on Lebanon’s New TV station, “even by one percent, that the captive operation would result in such a wide-scale war, as such a war did not take place in the history of wars. Had we known that the captive operation would result in such a war we would not have carried it out at all.” Not even during the recent war in Gaza, while the Israelis were busy and distracted fighting Hamas, did Nasrallah think it wise to risk a repeat of 2006. Unless every reported terrorist attempt since Mugniyeh’s assassination is fictitious, though, Nasrallah still seems to think it’s okay to attack Israel outside Israel.

Israel vows to retaliate inside Lebanon if Hezbollah inflicts any serious damage. “The Lebanese government bears overall responsibility, and any attempt to attack Israel will be met with a response,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said. Even a relatively restrained response inside Lebanon by Israelis could escalate into a big war, as it did last time.

“Read the rest in Commentary Magazine”:http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/a-third-lebanon-war–15073.

All Quiet on the Eastern Front

Many of you — an almost shocking number of you — have sent me worried emails after reading rumors on the Internet and even in newspapers about a violent attack against me and two of my colleagues in a country that is known for its occasional violence. I am fine, as are the others. I sincerely appreciate the concern for my safety, but there is no need to worry.

I haven’t yet read an account that gets all the details right, and the most compelling details are naturally missing from every second- and eleventh-hand report that’s bouncing around. I’ll be home in a few days and will publish the real story. Only three people in the world can tell you the real story, and until then I suggest you refrain from taking the global gossip mill at its word.

On the Road, Briefly

I told myself I wasn’t going to travel again for a while unless I had a really good reason because I have so much material to write up from Iraq and Lebanon. But I was invited on a short last-minute trip that I could not possibly turn down, and I have some terrific material already. My location needs to remain undisclosed for the next couple of days, but I’ll be home soon and will tell you all about it. Stand by.

A Dispatch from the Border with Gaza

Gaza City from Sderot.jpg

Not since the Second Intifada, when more than a thousand Israelis were murdered by Palestinian suicide bombers, have Israeli civilians suffered in a way that makes for compelling news copy or TV reports.

The southern Israeli city of Sderot sits right next to the border with Gaza, and it is the target of choice for Hamas and Islamic Jihad’s Qassam rocket barrages. The first time I visited the city under fire was immediately after the Second Lebanon War in August of 2006. Israeli civilians were still on their way back to Haifa, Kiryat Shmona, and other urban areas that had been emptied of people when Hezbollah turned the northern sixth of the country into a free fire zone. Lebanese villages were still smoldering, and their dead were still being cleared from underneath rubble. Sderot, by contrast, seemed downright sedate even though rockets packed tight with metal fragments and ball bearings still fell from the sky every day.

The city had been under fire for years before I got there, but the barrages were tolerable, albeit barely. Sderot had never been abandoned. Its residents were never made into refugees. Only a handful of people had been killed by the time I first visited, and not even a dozen more have been killed in the meantime. It’s easy to callously ask “what’s the big deal?” I wasn’t remotely nervous when I showed up myself, and even many Israelis thought the attacks weren’t worth going to war over. That’s the main reason Hamas got away with it for so long.

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Sderot, Israel

Something changed in December of 2008, however. Suddenly Hamas found itself in possession of Grad rockets that can be aimed with much greater precision than the home-made Qassam rockets that make up the bulk of their arsenal. And Hamas fighters found that they could shoot those rockets much farther into Israel and strike the cities of Beersheva and Ashdod, as well as Ashkelon and Sderot.

“The shorter rockets, the improvised rockets, have a short range,” Major Chezy Deutsch told me. “So a smaller percentage of the population are under that threat. But when they can pull out new rockets and hit a new city, a city that up until now hasn’t been hit, the terror affect is much larger. People who, up until then, thought they were fine and didn’t have anything to worry about are suddenly within range of the threat. So it has a much larger effect than hitting Sderot again.”

I visited Sderot and the Gaza border region again with some of my colleagues on a trip organized by the American Jewish Committee. IDF Colonel Miri Eisen accompanied us and gave us the Israeli perspective on what was happening.

Our first stop was a hill outside Sderot overlooking the fence separating Gaza from Israel. The date we had scheduled for our visit turned out, by chance, to be the first day after the war more or less ended. Twenty four hours earlier, the area still was a war zone. Even so, I heard the low thump of artillery shells fired somewhere off in the distance.

“I’m hearing artillery shells,” Colonel Eisen said, “which means that it’s not totally quiet today.”

It was almost totally quiet, however, and it was hard to imagine what it looked like the day before when the sky was filled with rocket trails and IAF jet fighters.

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Gaza City from Sderot

Gaza was right there in front of us. A fifteen minute walk would have placed us inside if it weren’t for the fence.

“The hill that we’re standing on, guys, is the tail end of the mortar range,” Colonel Eisen said. “And I have to tell you that as a military person, I have a great respect for mortars. They are very lethal and they’re much more exact. Now, when we’re talking about mortars, we’re not talking home-made. They have a shorter range, but are much more lethal and much more exact. And for a long time I didn’t take people to this hill or any hill that was farther west. Because the mortars and their trajectory and the way they fly, we had very little early warning. We didn’t know there was going to be a ceasefire, and I would have brought you here anyway. But before we had to come up here with flak jackets, and we’ve had to tumble down the hill to avoid incoming fire.”

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The border between Gaza and Israel

War correspondence is one of the strangest jobs in the world. War is shit, and only a sadist takes pleasure in watching people get shot at and bombed from the sky. I also don’t particularly care for being shot at myself. If I were a war junkie, I’d visit Sri Lanka or the Congo or some other place that’s orders of magnitude more violent than Israel.

On the other hand, I was slightly disappointed that our group was a day late for the war. I didn’t want the fighting to start again so I could watch, but at least I could have written about it as a witness instead of a researcher had we gotten there just a bit earlier.

“But I say happily that Sderot didn’t get the brunt of the mortars,” Colonel Eisen said. “The mortars were mostly on kibbutzim that are within the three kilometer range. In those places no one could be outside at all. They didn’t even have a ten second warning. Most of our casualties were from mortars, both civilians and soldiers.”

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Asher Afriat holds up a map showing Hamas’ rocket range out of Gaza

Behind us was the small city of Sderot which had been hit far more times with rockets out of Gaza than any other place in the country.

“Sderot has had four days without the sounding of rocket alarms in the last eight years,” she said. “Four days. Why Sderot of all places? 20,000 people live here. Who cares? When they initially started to construct what we call the home-made Qassam rockets, they were very crude. They were very inaccurate. I mean they were inaccurate by a kilometer or two. And their range at the beginning was only five or six kilometers. They have since grown. But when they fire from the northeast corner of the Gaza Strip and they want to make sure Israelis feel it, the largest target they have is Sderot. They get a target which is clear, which is obvious. And that’s why Sderot will continue to be the one that gets hit. It’s within the range of the lethal inaccurate rockets, and it’s the largest target on the horizon.”

Gaza Sderot Ashkelon Map.JPG

Just to the north of Gaza along the shore of the Mediterranean is the city of Ashkelon, which was also routinely hit by Hamas rocket fire. The power plant is in the southern part of the city and therefore the easiest target there for Hamas to hit.

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The Ashkelon power plant from Sderot

“The power plant is around seven kilometers away as the crow flies,” Colonel Eisen said, “or as the rocket flies. The city of Ashkelon itself — because the power plant is at the southern edge of it — is nine or ten kilometers from the northern edge of the Gaza Strip.” Much of Gaza’s electricity is generated by that plant, and yet Hamas takes great pleasure in shooting at it.

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Colonel Miri Eisen pointing at Gaza from Sderot

“You see those sand dunes over there,” she said, “and a couple of buildings next to the dunes? That’s the northern edge of the Gaza Strip. That’s not in Israel, that’s in Gaza. And that’s the main launching area for Qassam rockets with a range up to Ashkelon. That was one of the IDF ground operation’s initial areas. We went into that area in the north of the city of Gaza to stop the launchings there. If you go into those areas, the farthest north that you can reach is the city of Ashdod. The new rockets have a range of 42 kilometers, and if Hamas wants Ashdod to be in it, they need to go as far to the north as they can inside Gaza.”

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The skyline of the city of Ashdod

Ashdod is just south of Tel Aviv. Some Israelis describe it as a suburb of Tel Aviv because it’s within easy commuting distance, but it’s 20 miles south and is physically separated by a bit of countryside.

The city of Kiryat Gat has also been hit by Hamas rockets recently, and many Israelis find that disturbing.

“Kiryat Gat means something to us,” she said. “It has the only factory for Intel chips outside the United States. The make the chips there for your computer in the city of Kiryat Gat. Kiryat Gat was hit, as were many of the other cities within the radius.”

Above the border with Gaza are surveillance zeppelins that look exactly like those I’ve seen used by Americans in Iraq.

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A surveillance zeppelin above the border with Gaza

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A surveillance zeppelin above the border with Gaza

“The zeppelins are part of the early warning intelligence system,” she said. “They’re all tethered and are only affected by wind. And it’s flat here, so that gives us the height we need.”

“They’re up there all the time?” I said.

“They’re up there all the time,” she said, “except in very high winds. They are much larger than you can imagine. They’re a good kilometer and a half up in the sky. They can go up to two and a half kilometers into the sky.”

Israelis weren’t only startled out of their complacency because Beersheva and Ashdod were all of a sudden within Hamas’ range. The implications of Hamas’ upgrade worried them even more. One more upgrade might put Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ben-Gurion International Airport, and the Dimona nuclear power plant within range of the rockets.

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Outside the walls of Jerusalem

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Inside the walls of Jerusalem

Any rocket or missile that could fly all the way to those targets would inevitably carry a much larger warhead that would deliver one hell of a punch. Hamas, if left undeterred and allowed to strengthen its arsenal, could snap Israel’s economy like that and kill potentially thousands of people in a very short time frame. No one would want to be in Gaza if large Iranian-made missiles were exploding into the sides of Tel Aviv skyscrapers every day.

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Tel Aviv, Israel

Two and a half years ago I spoke to an Israeli intelligence officer who said that missile war was about to replace terrorist war, and he was right.

Colonel Eisen held up a map that showed which cities in Israel would be under attack if the same kinds of rockets flying out of Gaza today were being launched from inside the West Bank.

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Colonel Miri Eisen shows which cities would be at risk if Hamas fired rockets from both the West Bank and Gaza

Every major population center in the country would be under attack except Haifa. Yet Haifa is within Hezbollah’s rocket range out of Lebanon in the north. When Hezbollah fired its medium-size Katyusha rockets at Haifa in 2006, Haifa was on fire and emptied of people and cars. It was like a city at the end of the world. It’s possible, though very intolerable, to live under Qassam rocket attack. It isn’t possible to live long at all under Katyusha rocket attack.

If this nightmare scenario ever unfolds, Israel will be in a fight for its life. And Palestinians and Lebanese will be killed in horrifying numbers in order to make it all stop.


Fewer than twenty Israelis have been killed by rocket fire from Gaza since Hamas and Islamic Jihad adopted the tactic. A few single suicide bombers inflicted more casualties all by themselves. Hezbollah killed around ten times as many Israelis in one month in 2006 than Hamas has managed with crude rockets for years. It’s no wonder, really, that critics slammed Israel for its “disproportionate” military response in the Gaza Strip.

It’s not just about casualties, though. Leave aside the fact that Hamas was escalating its attacks with bigger and longer range rockets and that a far deadlier scenario was on the horizon. Living under Qassam and Grad rocket attack doesn’t sound like much fun, but it’s worse than the low body count makes it seem.

Thousands of rockets have fallen on Sderot. And every rocket launched at the city triggers an air raid alert. Everyone within ear shot has fifteen seconds to run into a shelter.

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A rocket shelter in Sderot

Imagine sprinting for cover 5,000 times.

Do you know what it’s like raising children in that kind of environment? It distorts their perception of the entire world.

Michael Yon visited the border with Gaza just after I did. “According to a pamphlet from the Sderot Information Center,” “he wrote”:http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/68703/, “a kindergarten teacher asked her pupils, ‘Why does the snail have a shell?’ The children answered in chorus, ‘So it can be protected from the Kassam rockets.’”

Major Chezy Deutsch joined us.

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Major Chezy Deutsch

“The small number of physical casualties is not because their weapons aren’t working,” he said. “The small number is because the population understands the protection guidelines. They know that they have fifteen seconds to find shelter.”

Fifteen seconds is plenty of time to reach a bomb shelter if you’re already next to one. But what if you’re outside? In a car? What if you’re asleep or taking a shower?

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“You have to remember,” Major Deutsch said, “that the damage isn’t the number of physical casualties, it’s the number of people with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. The kids in first grade in Sderot were born when rockets were being fired at Sderot. They have lived their entire lives having to think that when they leave the house, when they’re walking down the street, when they’re playing ball, that they have fifteen seconds to hide from an incoming rocket. And it’s not only the kids, it’s the parents. I have a friend who won’t drive with two kids in the car. If the alert goes off he doesn’t want to have to ask himself which of his kids he is going to save. He and his wife don’t go out to weddings, bar mitzvahs, or things like that at night because they don’t want to leave their kids with a babysitter.”

IDF officials say that in the years prior to last month’s war in Gaza, Hamas fired far more rockets at some times of the day than at other times. “Those times were between seven and eight in the morning,” Major Deutsch said, “and between six and seven at night. Between seven and eight in the morning is when everyone is leaving their home. They’re on their way to work, and their kids are on their way to school. They are farthest away from protected spaces and most vulnerable. And in the evening Hamas wanted to be the opening item on the evening news. The school is a choke point. You have kids leaving from all the different places around the city, but they have to congregate around the gate to enter the school. And you’ll see that they target areas near schools.”

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Inside a rocket shelter in Sderot

“How are they able to target the schools?” said my colleague Max Boot from the Council on Foreign Relations.

“When I was little I built Estes [model] rockets in my house,” Major Deutsch said. “We bought them in a kit. We had a slide rule where we figured out at 45 degrees how far it could fly from the amount of time the engine works. It’s very basic geometry. Hamas checks and tests their weapons. They know how long a rocket burns, and they know how long it flies.”

“It’s not just a question of targeting the schools,” Colonel Eisen said. “It’s also about the hour. When kids are out and about all over the city, when parents are taking them to school. If we educate the population on how to live within this kind of environment, we can radically reduce the number of casualties. For the people of Sderot it’s the most obvious. They’re not the ones who stand outside and look at the rockets. They hear the alert, and they run into the shelter. They have ten to fifteen seconds, and they know that. They’ve kept themselves alive here. Sderot doesn’t really have casualties now.”

“The explosion on impact is lethal,” she continued, “and the explosion goes up, so all the instructions in Israel are for you to lay down flat and put your hands over your head. But if it lands right next to you, it doesn’t leave you a lot of room. A woman protected her son in Beersheva a few days ago. They got out of the car, they lay down, she was laying over him, and he got a fragment in his head. He’s been in critical condition ever since.”

She showed us a house across the street from a school. A rocket exploded in the front yard the day before. The family was watching TV in the living room and ran for shelter as soon as they heard the “incoming” alarm. They would have been killed if they hadn’t because shrapnel from the explosion tore apart their living space. Their outdoor furniture at ground level caught on fire and the exterior walls were pocked with shrapnel holes that looked almost like bullet holes. The windows were, of course, broken. The house looked as though somebody had parked in front and assaulted their home with automatic weapons fire and a grenade launcher.

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Shrapnel from Qassem rocket attack

Life can and does go on under the circumstances, but would it be possible for an entire country to endure these kinds of attacks? Perhaps that’s the wrong question. What country in the world would tolerate these kinds of attacks? Almost certainly none. They are only tolerable if a small percentage of a country’s population is exposed, and they’re only barely just tolerable for a while.

The Sderot police station has an enormous collection of rockets out back that the officers like to show visitors.

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Rockets at the Sderot police station

“This is only a sample,” Major Deutsch said. “These are only some of the rockets that have landed in Sderot most recently.”

I visited Sderot two years before and saw an entirely different collection of rockets that recently had been fired at the city. The rockets are rotated in and out.

The first Qassam rockets were home made. Now they’re built in factories as well as in houses.

Building them isn’t difficult. Minimal knowledge of chemistry is all that it takes to make home-made explosives. And materials for rocket shafts aren’t hard to find, either. Poles that hold up stop signs and parking meters can be used, for example, as can pipes used for plumbing. Some of the simplest materials in the world have dual-use. Sanctioning and blockading Gaza to keep out the rocket parts therefore is difficult.

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And Hamas has been upgrading lately.

“During the last three and a half years since we left the Gaza Strip,” Colonel Eisen said, “Hamas has smuggled in professional grade explosives. When we talk about smuggling tunnels, you have to understand that there are hundreds. They’re not big. They can be small. You can smuggle in Grad rockets, but you can’t necessarily smuggle in the launcher. So the launchers are improvised, and that’s affected the distance, the radius, that they can fire them. They have also smuggled lots of anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft missiles. The missiles themselves, which are Chinese and Iranian, can be smuggled in in parts. You can see that they come apart. They can’t have the long regular grade missiles fit through the smuggling tunnels, so they take them apart and put them back together.”

I tried to imagine what it would be like in the city if Hamas fired all of its rockets in a single day.

Michael Yon added up the number of pounds of explosives they’ve packed into their Qassams — 140,000 — and ran the numbers. “There are many types of fragmentation hand grenades that are designed to kill people,” he wrote. “One of the most widely used, the deadly American M67, contains a little more than 1/3lb of explosives per grenade. (The entire M67 grenade including fuse and casing weighs 1lb.) This means that 140,000lbs of explosives would be roughly equal the ‘net explosives weight’ of about 350,000 grenades launched randomly against civilians.”

“We have to remember not to underestimate Hamas,” Major Deutsch said. “Okay? They’re not stupid. They know what they’re doing. Even if it’s a primitive weapon, it’s effective.”

“Do you have automatic counterbatteries for the rocket and mortar attacks?” said Mario Loyola from National Review magazine.

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Mario Loyola, from National Review magazine, at the Gaza border

“No, no,” Major Deutsch said. “Because if they fire a mortar from inside a school, we don’t want to automatically shoot back.”

It may appear as though Israelis can’t be bothered about the well-being of civilians in Gaza, especially after they bombed that already tormented society for several weeks in a row. But I found that isn’t true.

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A temporary field hospital was set up by the State of Israel at the Erez Crossing at the northern end of Gaza.

Palestinian civilians who needed medical attention were invited to come to Erez for treatment by Israeli doctors.

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An Israeli doctor at the Erez field hospital

Humanitarian goods facilitated by the IDF also went through Erez into Gaza throughout the conflict, and the crossing was open to Palestinians with dual nationality who wanted out.

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An Israeli doctor at the Erez field hospital

“We were asked by the government and the Ministry of Health to operate this regional medical clinic,” an Israeli doctor told me. “We’ve put everything here we can provide in a first-line clinic. It’s not a hospital. We won’t be able to operate here. But we need a humanitarian clinic to treat patients who need medical assistance.”

The Erez crossing has been one of the most dangerous places near Gaza for a while now. It has been targeted by suicide bombers several times.

It was not what I expected to see. Erez looks like it was built as a border control point for a normal country like Jordan. It doesn’t look anything like an entrance into the crowded, impoverished, and war-torn dystopia beyond.

The Qalandia checkpoint into the relatively peaceful and prosperous West Bank from Jerusalem looks like a gateway to a prison camp, but “the Palestinian city of Ramallah beyond it is clean, pleasant, and tranquil”:http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/2006/05/the-other-side-of-the-green-li.php — at least it is these days.

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Qalandia checkpoint between Jerusalem and the West Bank

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Inside Erez Crossing

“Think about what this kind of structure means and what it meant for Israel,” Colonel Eisen said. “I look at this as a vision of what we want. When you think about the fact that we just fought a very bloody three-week campaign, it’s very tragic. But think about what this kind of structure means. We want to go forward where we use this kind of terminal in a very different way.”

“This isn’t at all what I thought it would look like,” I said to “my colleague Rick Francona”:http://francona.blogspot.com/, a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the US Air Force who works now as a military analyst for NBC News. “Such a contrast to what’s on the other side.”

“It’s like the border between North and South Korea,” he said.

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Lieutenent Colonel Rick Francona, US Air Force, looks into Gaza from the Erez Crossing

“This is so us,” Colonel Eisen said and put her hand on her heart. “This is what Israel is all about, and it always has been. It makes me proud. Lots of foreign reporters come here.”

I could see that. The waiting area was packed with reporters from all over the world.

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Journalists at the Erez field hospital

“But they almost never write about this,” she continued. “We try to get the word out, but most of them just are not interested.”

I tried to imagine how different this conflict would be if Hamas set up medical facilities for Israeli civilians wounded by Qassam rocket attacks. The very idea, of course, is absurd.

“I wonder what Hamas thinks of all this,” I said to Rick Francona. “Do they even understand it?”

“They probably think it’s a trick,” he said.

Perhaps Hamas understands very well what it means that Israelis opened a clinic for wounded Palestinians. Perhaps they feel like it’s a different kind of threat altogether.

The Israelis had to close the place down. Only a handful of patients ever came through, which didn’t surprise me. I didn’t see any Palestinian patients there when I visited. “Hamas didn’t allow their wounded to be treated by Jews”:http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304655619&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull.

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It’s a Nice Place, Actually

Beirut, Lebanon, is still “the poster child for urban disaster areas”:http://www.thisislichfield.co.uk/news/Fury-Beirut-slur-dead-man-s-estate/article-671670-detail/article.html in some parts of the world.

A comparison of the Weston Road and Dimbles Lane area in which Mr Eccles lived and died to ‘Beirut’ was described as ‘the last thing the area needs’ by Mr Bayliss…

“The area has got some problems, it does need help but the last thing it needs is being described as Beirut,” Mr Bayliss told the Mercury.

“We have got enough negativity — it isn’t bloody Beirut, there’s hundreds of good people here.

“I am livid about it.”

Beirut was named “the best travel destination in the world”:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/01/11/travel/20090111_DESTINATIONS.html?8dpc in 2009 by the New York Times. “Here is one of my photo galleries”:http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/2006/05/this-is-beirut-1.php.

The New Backbone of the Sunni Resistance

When Israel retaliated against Hezbollah in July of 2006, something strange and new and unexpected took place. Arab governments blamed Hezbollah for sparking the conflict and didn’t complain about Israeli behavior until later. During the more recent war in Gaza we saw something similar; only this time the de-facto alignment of Israeli and Sunni Arab state-interests was even more obvious. Most Arab governments blamed Hamas for starting the latest round, and Egypt worked openly with the Israelis to achieve a new ceasefire arrangement that left their mutual enemy in the Gaza Strip weakened. “Saudi Arabia is no longer the backbone of the Arab alliance against Iran,” Asher Susser from Tel Aviv University said to me as the ceasefire went into effect. “Israel is.”

It’s bizarre, to be sure, to think of Israel as the backbone of a Sunni Arab alliance against Iran and its proxies, but Israelis aren’t the only ones who see things that way. Disgruntled Arabs from Cairo to Beirut and Damascus have noticed the same thing, and they aren’t happy about it.

“Egyptians Seethe Over Gaza, and Their Leaders Feel Heat”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/world/middleeast/10cairo.html?fta=y, read a headline in the New York Times a few weeks ago. “It is understood that Egypt gave the green light for the attack,” “Rannie Amiri wrote”:http://palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=14779 in the Palestine Chronicle. “There is true and full collaboration between certain Arab regimes,” “said Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah”:http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129095, “especially those who have already signed peace deals with Israel, to crush any form of resistance.”

I heard similar complaints myself after the Second Lebanon War. “Gulf Arabs give bombs to Israel to kill my people!” one Lebanese Shia man “said to me in a hysterical tone of voice”:http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/2007/01/its-like-a-phish-concert-for-t.php at a Hezbollah rally in Beirut December of 2006.

Some of these accusations are madness on stilts. Gulf Arabs will never give Israel weapons, for instance. But even the more hysterical residents of Arabic countries see clearly that the geopolitical tectonic plates in the region are shifting. The governments of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen “came out strongly against Hamas and in favor of their Fatah rivals”:http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1061352.html at a meeting in Abu Dhabi this week.

“Egypt is cooperating to a great extent with Israel,” Susser continued, “as are Abu Mazen and the Jordanians. There were more anti-Israel demonstrations in Dublin than there were in Ramallah.”

Most Arab governments, aside from Syria’s and possibly Qatar’s, are far more worried about Iranian regional dominance than they are about anything coming out of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. They know perfectly well that the State of Israel is not going to undermine or overthrow them, while radical Iranian-sponsored Islamists just might.

“Read the rest in Commentary Magazine”:http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/totten/53322.


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