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Here We Go

Drudge reports that the Kerry campaign is about to implode. It’s another intern scandal.

Kerry isn’t my favorite person. He certainly isn’t my first choice for president.

But, you know? I just don’t care about his sex life. I really don’t. We aren’t electing the pope or the chief marriage counselor.

If Kerry were my guy, this scandal – if it’s even legit in the first place – wouldn’t change that. As it is, I don’t particularly care for him, but I don’t think much worse of him as a candidate. (At least not yet.)

That sound you hear in the corner? Howard Dean is licking his chops.

Some Beauties in The Big O

I often complain that the opinion page in the Portland Oregonian is boring. There aren’t enough opinions in there. Wouldn’t want to offend the readers. They might disagree with something they read, the poor dears.

Man, were there some doozies this month, though. Law Professor Jack Bogdanski saved ‘em.

None of the Above

Matt Welch is bummed about the lameness of this year’s election. Wesley Clark is “miserable,” John Kerry is “as inspiring as a bag of kelp.”

So I’ll pull the lever for either Dean or Edwards on March 2, if either are still around, and I might just vote for one of ‘em if they stand aside. Too bad that this exciting political season lasted about three weeks.

His pal Ken Layne won’t write about politics on his blog anymore, so we have to read Welch’s comments box if we want to know what he thinks:

I also find Kerry stiff & creepy & an advertisement for everything wrong with spending your adult life trying to win higher office and / or fame. But your interest in Dean (an absolute clown who seems to stand for whatever he’s told by some geeks on the MeetUp, and just as willing to toss all that for Al Gore and whatever lobbyist advisors) and Clark (possibly the weakest candidate — and most worthless human being — to run for this office since Dan Quayle) is utterly weird.

Then again, you proudly voted for Nader, which apparently taught you absolutely nothing.

Well, I proudly voted for Nader too. (Though I won’t do it again, Ken. I promise!) One thing I liked about the guy was that he backed a “None of the Above” option on future election ballots. If “None of the Above” wins, we pitch the losers over the side and hold a brand new election with different people.

This time, like last time, I want none of the above. I want a new election. Dump every candidate (except maybe for Edwards) and start over. Dump Bush, too.

Wishful thinking, I know. Kinda like voting for Nader…

UPDATE: Ilyka Damen is with me on this. She calls do-overs.

Did You Eat Paste in Fourth Grade?

Here is John Kerry in the year of my birth (1970):

I’m an internationalist…I’d like to see our troops dispersed through the world only at the directive of the United Nations.

George W. Bush missed some Air National Guard drills when I was three.

How much, exactly, does this stuff matter?

Jane Galt answers with a question:

What would you think of a job interviewer who wanted to discuss how many times you ate paste in the fourth grade?

Political Football

Roger L. Simon writes about the inanities of partisan politics.

If you do it, it sucks! If we do it, it rules!

Statistically Speaking

Arnold Kling has forgotten more about statistics than I’ll ever know. He teaches the subject in school.

In his latest Tech Central Station column he applies statistical analysis to both the infamous Florida recount and regime-change in Iraq. I’m not even sure what this has to do with statistics in the first place, which shows you how much I know about it. But still this discussion is pretty interesting. Here’s a novel way (to me) of looking at the problem:

In the case of Iraq, the unknown quantity is whether, if left alone, Saddam Hussein’s regime would have eventually killed Americans or blackmailed our leaders with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Ultimately, that is the unknown parameter about which we are concerned.

Next, let us describe Type I and Type II errors. A Type I error would be to back down from confronting Iraq and subsequently suffer a WMD attack. A type II error would be to invade Iraq when in fact we would not have been hit with WMD even if we left the regime alone.

The consequences of a Type I error — an attack on Americans using WMD — would go beyond even the death and destruction that would be involved. The response, in terms of military action and domestic security, would be very costly, both in terms of lives and in terms of compromises to our freedom and privacy.

The consequences of a Type II error would include loss of lives during the war and its aftermath. Also, we are left with a significant responsibility in helping Iraqis rebuild their state. By the same token, one could argue that a Type II error has benefits, such as ending the mass murders committed by the Hussein regime and giving Iraqis an opportunity to establish a better government.

We will never know the unknown parameter — what the Hussein regime would have done vis-a-vis weapons of mass destruction had we not invaded. However, the failure to find weapons stockpiles increases the probability that we committed a Type II error and reduces the probability that by backing down we would have committed a Type I error.

The short version, of course, is that it’s better to overestimate danger than underestimate it . Underestimation can lead to another 9-11 or worse. At least overestimation can lead to a net positive — the removal of a filthy regime.

Treachery?

Oliver Kamm is back from vacation, and he’s hitting Al Gore pretty hard.

Al Gore confirmed his unfitness for public office with a speech whose standards of tawdriness and mendacity will remain unsurpassed till the stars burn out and the heavens implode…

I’m ashamed to admit it, but I had hoped for a Gore victory in 2000 (especially given his running mate), as indeed I have hoped for a Democrat victory in every Presidential election I can recall. (That goes back to the feckless Jimmy Carter in 1976 — I never said my preferences were correct.) Moreover, if you can credit this, I supported Gore primarily on grounds of foreign policy. I expected a Bush administration to have a view of national security so circumscribed that it would fail to see the strategic as well as moral necessity of maintaining Nato’s presence in the Balkans, and perhaps even seek to end the unstable system of containment of Saddam Hussein by cutting a deal with the tyrant (“no blood for oil”, so to speak)…

“Betrayed this country”, indeed — whereupon the former Vice-President adopts the nomenclature of Ann Coulter and Michael Moore in accusing his political opponents not merely of holding mistaken opinions but of practising treachery.

Read the rest. He’s right on target as usual.

Missing the Point

From the AP:

A letter seized from an al-Qaida courier shows Osama bin Laden has made little headway in recruiting Iraqis for a holy war against America, raising questions about the Bush administration’s contention that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror.

Actually, no, it doesn’t raise such questions. At least it shouldn’t.

Iraq is critical for strategic reasons. The Middle East will continue cranking out terrorists until its political slum has been renovated. We are not going to be safe as long as the Middle Eastern status quo is tyrannical. Slum-clearance had to start somewhere, and no dictator in that region had as pernicious an influence as Saddam Hussein.

The Al Qaeda letter does, however, cast a wee bit of doubt on the idea that invading Iraq would only inspire more terrorists. Chalk that one up to the latest overwrought doom-mongering. Remember that Baghdad was supposed to be the next Stalingrad. The Brutal Afghan Winter and the Empire Destroying Taliban Warrior fantasies didn’t amount to much either.

Meeting Dr. Frank

Instapundit Glenn Reynolds has been dubbed an Internet rock star. But Sunday night Shelly and I got to meet a real Internet rock star, punk-rockin’ Mr. T Experience front-man Dr. Frank, also known for his eclectic sometimes-political blog named What’s-It.

I started reading Dr. Frank’s ruminations on all things political and international long before I created this blog. He doesn’t know it, but he helped inspire me to start up my own. Here was a guy with a site named The Blogs of War (before he later changed it to What’s-It) who wasn’t exactly what Tim Blair would call a Right Wing Death Beast. Here was a blog for the sensitive warmonger, as he himself described it. He’s wasn’t Rush Limbaugh or even Andrew Sullivan. More like a “Daily Show Democrat” or a “Reno 911 Independent” as he now puts it. And yet he had a war blog. So somehow, I can’t quite explain why, it gave me a sort of permission to start up my own.

Some of my co-workers at my day job know Dr. Frank first and foremost as the cool punk rocker dude from the Bay Area who used to tour with Green Day. Like the rest of us, Dr. Frank has mellowed with age. The new MTX album Yesterday Rules softens up some of the punk rock edginess with some pleasant, even soothing, sometimes funny acoustic pieces. London starts out quiet, almost folksy as Dr. Frank delivers “You have to hate the world / It’s required by your clothes” with deadpan earnestness. The crunchier songs are fun, too. “Let’s keep the freaking out to a minimum” he sings on Sorry For Freaking Out on the Phone Last Night.

Dr. Frank’s most famous piece of blogosphere music is probably the Internet hit Democracy Whiskey Sexy, inspired by the famous liberated Iraqi’s quote about what America means to him. You can download the song for free and if you like it, hey, why not, order his Eight Little Songs CD, every one of which, like his blog for the “sensitive warmonger,” is mellow and cool.

So anyway, after reading and listening to Dr. Frank for over a year, Shelly and I finally got to meet him. His band blew through Portland on the second day of their tour and we met up for beer before the show and stole his attention from the groupies who tagged along.

There were a few, shall we say, problems figuring out where the concert was supposed to be. I couldn’t find the place and, oddly enough, neither could the band. Dr. Frank and I played tag on our cell phones trying to help each other figure out where the dang venue was located. That’s not how it’s supposed to go down. It was like something out of Spinal Tap, but hey, it wasn’t his fault. (Nor was it mine. I only live here.)

Frank doesn’t act like the rock star he is. (Just how, exactly, is a rock star supposed to act? — Ed. Heck, I don’t know. But he’s cooler than I’ll ever be, and if he knows it he doesn’t show it.) We talked music, politics, Internet dating, San Francisco, and blogs. He’s a great guy, a smart writer, and a fantastic musician. If you don’t know him already, you’re missing out.

Thanks, Frank, for the beer and for coming to Portland.

Dr. Frank’s What’s-It.

Reviewing the Democrats

Christopher Hitchens in Slate on party-mindedness:

I know many people who are much more intelligent than George Bush (even if they do keep saying so themselves) and whom I have heard, over the past decades, talk with perfect seriousness about the prospect of electing Gary Hart, Michael Dukakis, Bill Bradley, or Tom Harkin as president of the United States. Do such smart people really wish that Michael Dukakis had been president when Saddam invaded Kuwait, or when Mikhail Gorbachev began to signal from Moscow? Of course they don’t, or not really, but they always think it must be better by axiom to have a Democrat (or “any Democrat” as they often put it) in office. Are they then in favor of permanent one-party rule? Of course not! They are for a healthy bipartisan system, where their candidate always wins.

He then reviews each of the Democratic candidates. He thinks Kucinich beats a lot of them (and he does have a point), and that Edwards beats them all.

We Are Not Doomed (Updated)

Nelson Ascher posted a remarkably gloomy mini essay on Europundits. He basically says we are doomed.

It is absolutely, I repeat, ASOLUTELY unbelievable, but the enemies of the war are winning the peace or rather are managing to reverse a brilliant military victory. What took them years to do in Vietnam, they’re doing right now in a matter of months. Iraq was defeated in weeks, the axis of weasels was demoralized, Saddam was captured and, even before that, his sons were killed. Yet, the guys whose jobs are in jeopardy are Bush and Blair.

I support the Bush and Blair foreign policy to the hilt. But still I have to say…their jobs must be in jeopardy. We haven’t had an election since September 11, and it is right and proper that their record so far be subject to referendum.

If they both get kicked out of office over the national security question, then I will be shocked and agree it is unbelievable. As it is, we still don’t even know who will run against Bush. (I’m leaving Blair out of this discussion from here on out because I’m a little too fuzzy about how this is going to play out in Britain.)

The likely Democratic nominee looks like John Kerry today, and he is alarmingly wishy-washy about the greatest question of our time. But he’s still in a primary race which drives American politicians toward the margins. The good news is that the farthest left John Kerry will go is only a half-hearted opposition to the liberation of Iraq. He did vote for the authorization, so even if he’s a bit spineless about it, he isn’t a peacenik or a reactionary isolationist.

In the meantime Sharon freed hundreds of terrorists [and] declared that he will pull out of Gaza while Arafat, whose tactics and strategy were soundly defeated, runs no risk at all [and] may begin to consider himself a winner of sorts.

That’s a bit of a bigger problem. But I’ll add that the settlers in Gaza are going to have to pull up their stakes at some point. It’s probably best that they wait until the jihadists are defeated so it doesn’t look like a weak Israeli retreat. But do keep in mind that most Israelis don’t want to hold onto Gaza. The Israeli advantage is miniscule compared to the diplomatic and security price paid. And nothing, not even Palestinian sovereignty, will stop Israel from plunging back in to stop threats to its people.

All this points to the wiseness of those who, immediately after 9/11, wanted to strike Iraq first.

I couldn’t agree more. We waited far too long to take care of Saddam. And for what?

It’s hard to remember it now, but in those weeks after the attacks the US had carte blanche to do whatever it wanted: it could have nuked Kaboul, Baghdad, Ryadh, for instance, and nobody would have dared to complain.

Well, I would have complained. Quite loudly in fact. And so would a lot of other people. During the first week after September 11 I greatly feared an American over-reaction. And when I realized the Bush Administration wasn’t about to commit an atrocity in the Muslim world, I quickly swung around to a militant hawkish position. If we had committed atrocities, the Bush Administration would be massively, perhaps violently, resisted right here at home.

Instead, possibly convinced by Powell and Blair, Bush opted for a “rational”, gradual strategy: Afghanistan first, then the formation of a coalition, then Iraq. We’ve seen what happened: this gradualism gave the fifth columnists inside the Western camp time to regroup and forge their own, up to now quite, successfull, counterattack.

John Kerry and Howard Dean are not fifth columnists. Leave that designation for the likes of International ANSWER. Kerry and Dean are weaker than Bush and Blair, but they do not hope the enemy wins.

Now is a good time to remind ourselves exactly what a fifth columnist is.

From dictionary.com:

fifth column

n.

A clandestine subversive organization working within a country to further an invading enemy’s military and political aims.

Back to Nelson Ascher:

During the run up to the Iraqi campaign I was quite worried: would the US have the nerve to go ahead? It seemed that Bush might well give the whole thing up at any moment. We’re in the same situation again: the war on terror seems, outwardly at least, to have stalled. Memories of 911 are as good as dead for most of the world and, as before the invasion of Iraq, the UK is the weak link in a problematic chain. People are saying that Blair’s mistake has to do with the 45 minutes claim, and this may well be true, but his much bigger mistake was probably to persuade Bush to postpone the Iraqi campaign in order to get the EU, the UN and who knows who else in the boat. He’ll possibly pay for this mistake. The trouble’s, however, is that he won’t be paying for it alone. Maybe Bush will pay too and, choosing for both England and the US governments unconcerned with the Islamist threat, we’ll all end up as losers.

I am very close to being a single-issue national-security voter. But most people are not. If Bush loses the 2004 election it will likely be despite, not because of, his foreign policy. Most Americans support an aggressive response to terror and dictatorship, and a lot of people are troubled with Bush’s presidency for domestic reasons. And that includes a large swath of Republicans.

If Bush loses, our enemies will almost certainly see that as a victory, which will be bad, unless the post-primary Democratic opposition matches his hawkishness with their own. But even if a weak-kneed John Kerry moves into the Oval Office, the Democrats will almost certainly grow more hawkish. They will have the burden of responsibility. It could change them as much as it changed the previously isolationist Bush. Mainstream Democrats are not instinctively pacifist. Opposition on the left to Bill Clinton’s raids over Serbia was miniscule. Much of the opposition to Bush’s foreign policy is pure partisan loathing and gamesmanship which will immediately evaporate if Bush is sent back to Texas. Dean, Kerry, and the rest of them are under a tremendous amount of political pressure to distinguish themselves from Bush. If one of them takes the White House, they’ll have a tremendous amount of pressure of a very different sort.

By the way: do the Islamists know about this? Can it be that their failure to attack Britain or the US itself was no failure at all, but a kind of tactical retreat, a way to allow their fifth columnist allies to weaken each country’s defenses from inside before a new huge terrorist onslaught?

That’s certainly possible. I hadn’t thought of it before, and it could well be true. But Al Qaeda isnt’the most sophisticated bunch around, and they seem to have all the restraint of a rabid dog. I imagine they are as likely as Westerners to engage in mirror imaging, the projection of traits from their own culture onto our own. Osama bin Laden thought Americans would think 9/11 was an American military coup, thus showing just how out of touch with our country he is.

Still, these guys aren’t stupid, and they very well may be waiting for Bush to leave before they strike us again here at home. But all that will accomplish is a ramp-up in the hawkishness of the Democratic Party, which will leave the jihadists with no viable peace movement to save them.

Are they holding their fire because they expect, in the absence of some new outrage that would re-awake the public opinion, Blair and Bush to fall? If so, they’re more dangerous than I’ve imagined, their alliance with forces inside the Western camp is deeper than I’ve imagined and, well, we are doomed.

Nelson, Al Qaeda doesn’t have an alliance with the Democratic Party. If a Stalinist goon from ANSWER were to run against Bush in the general election, then your fears would be grounded in fact. In the meantime, those on the fringe left who really are in cahoots with jihadists are marginalized. They set the tone at protests and have a corrosive effect on Democratic rhetoric and primary positioning, but so far that’s about it.

The tragedy of the liberals is that too many refuse to denounce the enemies to their left. And they often banish as heretics the moderates who do. The price they pay is that conservatives and some centrists actually fear them. But it’s easy to take this too far. The liberal left is much more than the punks in the streets and the cranks at The Nation.

If anybody can prove me that all or most of the above is wrong, I’d be quite grateful to hear about it.

I can’t prove it, and I doubt anyone can. If you want to take heart, just remember – you can’t prove your gloomy scenario either.

We are not doomed. The worst that can happen with a Democrat in the White House is we’ll have a weaker response to the threat than we currently have. Then we will get hit again. And in all probability, that weakness on the left will come to an end. It will have little chance of returning until the new war against fascism is over. The enemies of civilization will be very sorry indeed if that’s how Round Two goes down.

-

UPDATE: Many conservatives are giving me a shellacking in the comments section. Oddly enough, Nelson Ascher, who wrote the original piece I responded to, is not one of them.

He did respond in the comments, though, and I want to post his reponse on the main page where everyone can see it.

I’ve had no time yet to read most of the comments, but I agree with those, including Michael,who qualified my post as too gloomy. I wrote it under the immediate effect of having read Sunday’s British press (where the 45 minutes stuff isn’t going away in spite of the Hutton report and the BBC’s partial debacle)and some of Melanie Phillips’ posts too.

It surely wasn’t my intention at all to depict the Democrats as fifth columnists and, if I gave this impression, let me correct it right here: it’s not about them that I was thinking when I used the expression (though they may benefit from the work of the real fifth columnists, I wouldn’t declare them guilty by association): I had in mind ANSWER, the SWP, part of the Anglo-American media and academia, some Euro governments. That’s why I referred to a fifth column inside the Western camp, not exclusively in the USA. (I trust the worst democrats more than the average old European government.)

Actually I’m in Brazil right now and that, in a way, is worse than being in Paris because though I can ge acquainted first hand there with all their ill will, I’m also confronted day in day out by their (the French’s) growing economic, diplomatic, political and social weaknessess and isolation, something the balances a bit my gloom.

In Brazil, on the other hand, it is really as if 911 had never happened or were but a relatively “normal” kind of event.

Still, just to reaffirm somewhat my main point: I’ve never seen people so eagerly trying do reverse the result of a war won by their country as I’ve been seeing this happen in the UK. It is as if they weren’t actually reenacting the Vietnam protests, but rather beginning already from the quite developed stage where the anti-Vietnam war protests had stopped.

Habitually I’m less gloomy than that and, if you read some of my earlier posts, you’ll see that I’ve even tried to find something positive about suicide bombings in Israel, namely that they became the only way the Palestinians could hit Israel, because their earlier and favourite methods, like using booby-trapped cars or truck bombs or kidnaping airplanes weren’t working anymore. If I’m right, the suicide bombings are more a sympton of defeat than of victory.

And I also think there’s a strong case in stating that the real fifth columnists are not re-fighting the Iraqi war, but really want to stop the WoT, and that they (not the Democrats, really) root for the enemy. Oh, and the idea that the UK was the coalition’s weakest link is not mine, but David Warren’s, another of those who alternate some moderate optimism with frequent pessimistic gloom.

Thanks, Michael and everybody else, for the comments: I actually wrote that gloomy post expecting to be refuted and I do hope those who did it are absolutely right.

UPDATE: Andrew Olmsted comments.

Free Tibet

Jay Nordlinger in National Review implies that conservatives are behind the Free Tibet movement.

You will recall that, in previous columns, we have spoken of Meghan Howard, the Harvard kid who stood up to the Chinese Number One when he appeared at that school. Miss Howard is a supporter of the Tibetan cause. And the Harvard administration has come down on her for her disruption. Because, you know, that’s what it always does: penalize students for disrupting various events for political reasons. (That was a joke: Leftist students who do such things are patted on the head for their conscientiousness and good citizenship.)

Hang on a sec. Is “Free Tibet” a conservative idea on the East Coast?

In my part of the country it’s a left-liberal thing. I went to the University of Oregon in Eugene where every third hippie had a “Free Tibet” patch sewn into their backpack. Conservatives never seemed to pay the slightest attention to it.

Maybe it’s different at Harvard. Who knew? I certainly didn’t.

Is it true? Or is Mr. Nordlinger a little off base here?

UPDATE: Nathan Hamm thinks Jay Nordlinger is off base, and he has a lot more to say about the Chinese oppression of Tibetans and the rarely thought-about Uighurs of East Turkestan.

MJT Was Here

I feel like I’ve been to lots of places in the world, but sheesh. From the look of these maps, I’ve hardly seen anything.

I’ve been to all the red places.

Before the end of this year I expect to add Puerto Rico, Italy, and Tunisia.

create your own visited country map

or write about it on the open travel guide

create your own visited states map

Schroeder is Out

Anti-American blowhard Gerhard Schroeder is stepping down in Germany. Buh-bye!

Take a look at this photo. Check out his feet…

UPDATE: Just to clarify, Schroeder is stepping down as the leader of his party. He’s still in charge of Germany…for now.

The Race

Pakistan’s military dictator Pervez Musharraf pardoned Abdel Qadeer Khan for selling nuclear weapons secrets to North Korea, Libya, and Iran. The Beeb says there is tremendous public opposition to putting this guy on trial. In Pakistan he is a hero.

If Saddam Hussein still lorded it over Iraq, does anyone think Mr. Khan would have balked at helping him, too?

The Terror War is a race. On the one side we have a veritable axis of hard-line dictatorships trafficking in anti-Western terrorism and genocide weapons. On the other we have the guilt-ridden self-doubting West that slowly and in fits tries to civilize and democratize the unfree corners of the world.

The nuclear genie is out of its bottle. It cannot be put back in. Francis Fukuyama convincingly argues that the expansion of democracy is inevitable, but not on any particular schedule.

Which will spread the farthest and fastest? Liberalism or terror? Democracy or nuclear-armed jihadist regimes?

No one knows. Our intelligence agencies are broken and discredited. And most in the West want to think of sunnier things.

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