This Thursday may reveal, or even determine, the shape of our world for years to come. February 11 is the anniversary of the triumph of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Forbidden to stage protests since the ones that rocked the country following June’s stolen election, the opposition Green Movement has turned instead to co-opting public events, when official protocol encourages Iranians to take to the streets.
The most recent of such co-opted occasions were the anniversary of the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran in November; the mourning for Ayatollah Montazeri, following his death in December; and the observance of the Shiite holiday of Ashura a week after that. Each time the opposition displayed impressive strength.
Protest leaders have announced that February 11 will be the next occasion for the people to display their discontent. But the regime, too, has made known its intent to mobilize supporters, hoping to bolster its legitimacy.
The momentum of confrontation has been growing. Security officials have issued increasingly draconian threats against any protests. They hanged two men—alleged to be monarchists—and pronounced death sentences on nine others without revealing their names. Thus, the families of the 4,000 or so imprisoned protesters are left to wonder whether their children have been marked for execution. And some hard-line clerics have issued calls for many more executions. There is a bloody precedent for this: In the 1980s, apparently on orders of that pious man, Ayatollah Khomeini, authorities dispatched several thousand prisoners, mostly adherents of the “People’s Mujahideen of Iran,” who had not previously received death sentences.
The Green Movement has not backed down, relying on low-intensity tactics to demonstrate its unflagging spirit. For example, every Iranian, whichever side he or she is on, now cannot help but have a wallet full of anti-regime graffiti. How so? Because the movement’s slogans have been scrawled on most of the nation’s currency. In December, the regime tried to stifle this by announcing that all defaced bills would become worthless and demanded they be exchanged for unblemished notes. But the authorities did not have time to produce enough new currency to replace all that bore opposition messages. Enforcing its decree would have meant wiping out the cash of millions, creating new dissidents and inviting new protests. So, humiliatingly, the authorities backed down.
Shirin Ebadi, the Nobel Prize winner who has always been a moderate and cautious dissenter, has just added her voice to those calling on the people to defy the threats and take to the streets on Thursday. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, whose Radio Farda has numerous sources inside Iran, reported outbreaks of strikes this week in several industries. And public opinion polls conducted on behalf of the Green Movement (through a methodology that aims for rigor despite the constrained circumstances created by political repression) registered an increasingly radical opposition to the regime on the part of a growing majority of Iranians.
If on Thursday few protesters appear or make their sentiments known, then we will know that repression is working, at least for now, and the people have been cowed. But if large numbers turn out for the Green—rivaling or exceeding the numbers the authorities can produce, despite the fact that the former group face dire consequence while the latter are offered emoluments and transportation—then the movement’s momentum will continue to mount, and the deadly fissures that have been apparent within the regime will widen, perhaps fatally. If confrontations on Thursday claim even more lives, then this process is likely to be accelerated, with increasing numbers of clerics swinging against the authorities. By Friday morning we will have a clearer idea how much time is left for this sad, bizarre chapter in human history called the Islamic Republic.
RSS Feeds
